OK, we probably should have had this page years ago. It’s for comments which aren’t anything to do with lyrics, but which you really, really feel need a home somewhere on this site. Yes, that includes all the stuff about betting, etc., which nobody will ever want to read in 24 hours’ time. In other words, stuff you want to appear on the “Latest Comments” page, but then eventually scroll off into obscurity. There’s a link at the bottom of the home page “Features on this site” column.
EXXO
Tell you what, corners may not lead to a goal but when Sevilla & Liverpool are home on the same night they don’t half pay the bills.
14 April 2016
Geordiepaul
Thank you Chris, I’ve just set up a fantasy football league for people who like Half Man Half Biscuit.
I’ve set it to a maximum of 20 entrants and it costs a fiver to enter. All entry money goes to the top 3 places in prize money at the end of season.
The league is called Half Man Half Biscuit.
Here’s the link https://www.dreamteamfc.com/g/#season/league-hub/join/1120514?IWEY54HR
It should be good fun.
11 August 2016
EXXO
Aargh, would have loved to enter an Exx0-managed Eintracht Oblong team or whatever, and not knocking your plan … but why are fantasy leagues always sponsored by evil scum rags? No can do anything to do with Murdoch, Torygraph or that lying rag above all.
11 August 2016
Geordiepaul
I don’t like the sun or Mudrock either. But I’m not letting that spoil my fun. You’d end up starving to death and never going out if you only bought things that came from good men.
11 August 2016
EXXO
Good idea Chris (in response to the introduction now added above the thread). The ephemeral sports and betting stuff is inevitable given the general spirit and subject matter of HMHB, and as I mentioned a while back I always thought that a way of managing it might be to have a couple of articles as headers to all the time-wasting drivel from losers like me … one article for example about the prevalence of gambling imagery in the lyrics, and then the discussion below that article could have included include all the betting stuff, and maybe an article about HMHB and Tranmere, or something, and that could include all the mathematical safety stuff, etc. But the again my degree was in No Can Do.
It’s great that you like to keep your site so tidy, but also great that you seem to be considering your role and responsibilities in the ‘market’ (or the public square perhaps). Because historically-speaking your site came about at the precise moment when somebody else might have set up a HMHB forum (it had been suggested more than once on the yahoo list and it would undoubtedly soon have happened when forums became free), it has effectively replaced that and not only has it been a case since then of “I could do that, but I don’t really want to” (the Spirit of HMHB in one sentence, surely). Plus a forum set up since 2008 would have just looked like a poor competitor for this site, and another one that was always ripping off its lyrics too.
So yeah, bring it on. The hare will be running at Monmore in about 2 hours from now as it happens. That’s my first tip in fact. The hare.
11 August 2016
EXXO
Hastening to add something, as I often do, I would just like to point out that my 15/1 tip last year of Cheltenham for the Conference (¼ odds for first three places) or my 12/1 double of Grimsby to win the play-offs and Halifax the FA Trophy were both valid for a lot longer than 24 hours, and that if I had placed level stakes on every tip I have ever seen on an HMHB internet platform I would be many points up. It’s the quality of the people you know.
11 August 2016
Chris The Siteowner
Exxo: Facebook has killed off a lot of forums, and certainly it’s the place to be for any chat on most subjects nowadays. Andy M’s ‘Half Man Half Biscuit Society’ has nearly 7,000 members, so has far more reach than this site or Gez’s site. But hey, for the refuseniks, you’re welcome.
11 August 2016
Geordiepaul
I bet half of them think that HMHB are a comedy band from the 80s.
11 August 2016
EXXO
Facebook is to the internet what house music is to music. And houses.
11 August 2016
TOASTKID
That HMHB society on Facebook actually has some good posts, eg of this https://scontent.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14040173_10154482398014038_6118023571931567765_n.jpg?oh=318948ecee7d26b19de42f498b9c8d00&oe=58476312
It’s tempting to be elitist in this scenario, and I’ll try to avoid that, but I’d like to think that the FB page is a sort of club for enthusiasts, whereas this site is a more serious academic endeavour, whose motto is “It’s good to explore the more cultural aspects”, and whose aim is to provide, for posterity, a full examination of the cultural place and significance of our beloved band.
15 August 2016
dr desperate
Good call, @TK. Enthusiastic academics are free to like (or Like) both.
I may have mentioned that I think this site’s motto should quote Goldman incorrectly: “You keep using that word. I don’t think it means what you think it means.”
15 August 2016
dr desperate
Good, good, a thread dedicated to tidying up betting ephemera. Could I just say how splendid it is that it’s already wandered off the subject of betting?
15 August 2016
this leaden paul
While commentating during a less-than-frenetic period of the most recent England vs. Pakistan test match, David Lloyd did the ‘Tiger Feet’ joke, to the bemusement of his fellow Sly Sports employees.
Facebook is vile.
16 August 2016
Schoon
I love Exxo’s comment #8 here. CtSO can’t you put a like button here? And maybe change your colour scheme to blue?
16 August 2016
EXXO
I’ve had to use a water cooler quite a lot this year to fill the kettle in a couple of workplaces but I can’t imagine meeting anyone there who was interested in betting.
Sports-related threads on the internet are the places where these things generally get discussed in my experience.
So anyway I can’t believe 20/1 for Burton to win on pens and 40/1 in e/t tonight. I feel like I’ve spent half my life backing teams that begin with ‘B’ against L’pool ressies in the Mickey Mouse & the FA Cup, and done quite well out of it.
Get a couple of quid on before the teams are announced.
Plus better than 7/1 for the junk-mail-addressed-to-the-dead double of neither L’pool or Tranmere to win tonight.
23 August 2016
Bobby SVARC
0-2
23 August 2016
John Anderson
CtSO suggested I use this page to let you know that I’m currently selling a load of my vinyl albums and singles and would like them to go to genuine fans rather than twats with beards in Hoxton or dodgy dealers.
I have 12″ singles of Trumpton Riots EP, Let’s Not and No Regrets plus Back In The DHSS LP. I don’t know how desirable these items are (if at all) But if you want them let me know.
There’s also a whole pile of other stuff (c200 LPs & 600 singles). I’m happy for Chris to pass on my email address to genuine interested parties.
Email me here and I’ll forward your message to John – CtSO
14 September 2016
Bobby SVARC
I can remember a few years ago when Tranmere had just got rid of Ronnie Moore Nigel said to me that his No1 choice for the vacant Tranmere job was Grayson Perry!……..after watching the Guiseley game and today’s effort, he may have a point.
17 September 2016
EXXO
LOL @ the original blue bores in Watford today and a big win on the corners too.
18 September 2016
Bobby SVARC
Bye Bye Gary.
18 September 2016
EXXO
I’ve just seen Grayson Perry buying sherry in Rock Ferry.
19 September 2016
warden hodges
He’s surely taking over.
19 September 2016
Bobby SVARC
Deffo…..And while I’m at it, Pearson Out!
19 September 2016
Chris The Siteowner
*Sigh* Pearson out!
27 September 2016
EXXO
Massive, massive game this one now, to start a massive, massive 8 days for Rovers.
I’m on all the Hawkins bets (11/8, 9/4, 9/2, 7/1, 28/1).
1 October 2016
EXXO
Can’t see why Betfair are going 2/1 on Reed here unless they’re just trying to counter a huge liability on Mcllroy & Europe, so win or lose it looks like VALUE.
2 October 2016
EXXO
The Micky Mellon timing looks serendipitous but still the odds on Wrexham DNB & handicaps are too tempting here, given the form. Done some AGS & FGS doubles of the Wrexham forwards c/w James Vaughan of Bury.
8 October 2016
EXXO
Well that had the desired effect – a sheepshagger oggy is always an auspicious start to a managerial reign. Onwards and upwards.
8 October 2016
BOBBY SVARC
Well, I never. didn’t have a clue that Rovers had made it 2-0 in dying throws. Had them at to win at 8/5 (-1) just Hartlepools and Carlisle to win by any score and I can collect 50 guineas.
8 October 2016
Hendrix-tat
Respect to the Rovers fan with the melon hat today, A true fan, God bless you man.
8 October 2016
EXXO
Any inside info from the Ranieri out brigade? Might have a go on Santander AGS 13/4.
18 October 2016
Peter mcornotholgist
Having witnessed the inept performances and ensuing fixture list , I do think a wee wager on Sunderland not breaking the 10 point barrier is feasible .
18 October 2016
Bobbysvarc
You’ll love them Stamford lot Peter, they’re that posh they get out of the bath for a slash.
19 October 2016
Nige
Do Stamford have a Burghley centre forward?
19 October 2016
BOBBY SVARC
No, but they do have Steve Earl(e).
19 October 2016
Bobby svarc
John Biscuit is 9/1
1 November 2016
Bobby svarc
was
1 November 2016
BOBBY SVARC
Solomon Grundy Cheltenham 3.05
13 November 2016
Nigel
it’ll get buried
13 November 2016
Nigel
or second
13 November 2016
BOBBY SVARC
At 16/1
13 November 2016
EXXO
Nice e/w shout Nigel, and I’ve never read ‘On the Road’ but it didn’t stop it triumphing at 11/4 in the 3.15, so surely Boreham Bill in the 3.40 will bring up a kind of experimental treble of sorts?
13 November 2016
EXXO
Ha, do I sound like the kind of man who wouldn’t have done the RFC of a Biscuit reference and a horse with ‘poetic’ in its name?
13 November 2016
BOBBY SVARC
Yes, Thanks for the tip Nigel.
13 November 2016
EXXO
Woodyard, Waterfall and Raggett.
There’s a Sleaford Mods album title there surely.
Would have preferred a draw but well played the Imps, makes things interesting. Few quid on them for the title.
19 November 2016
BOBBY SVARC
Get in there!, Blackwell Synergy has just finished the 3.10 at Kempton Park.
21 November 2016
EXXO
Tranmere not the only club beginning with ‘T’ with a season-defining away game tonight, apparently. DNB double on both of their opponents, which of course I’d like to lose..
22 November 2016
EXXO
Ah well 57% profit, Rovers’ season still vaguely alive, and the Imps title bet looking healthy. I love my DNB.
23 November 2016
BOBBY SVARC
Had a Hughes 4 timer yesterday. Paid for hiring the VIP lounge at the Empire
23 November 2016
BOBBY SVARC
(Surrogate) Solemn Grundy, Wins on Friday
25 November 2016
Bobby svarc
Biscuit in the Towcester
15 December 2016
Chris The Siteowner
Ouch, missed out on a double EBR 28/1 winner here: “Andrew Thornton is just two away from joining the elite club of jump jockeys to have ridden 1,000 winners after scoring on Barton Gift at Bangor. The 44-year-old struck on the 28/1 shot, trained by John Spearing in the colours of former trainer Mercy Rimell, in the Equine Lens Handicap Chase.”
23 December 2016
CHARLES EXFORD
Ouch indeed – was at least a treble EBR with the essential double of name & racecourse .. but the trainer’s colours too! Drat, drat & treble drat. And of course Nigel (NigelTwiston-Davies’) horse was one of the two pulled-ups in the race. At least it wasn’t the Duchess of Westminster charity day at that track (that was last month).
23 December 2016
CHARLES EXFORD
Haven’t had cash for horses lately, but after that OUCH! I have to have a little go in Dundalk tonight (I’m cold & I’m hungry and it’s raining soup, after all) so although GOODNIGHT IRINA is really the only slight EBR on the card, I’ve done 2 Lucky 15’s:
17:00 Rock In Peace 4/1
18:00 Goodnite Irina 8/1 or Thunder Speed 8/1
18:30 The Mouse Doctor 5/1
20:00 He’s Our Music 8/1
23 December 2016
CHARLES EXFORD
For those that enjoy a few bets by the way the above is a really good example of how the ‘Betfred’ Lucky 15 can work for you. Find 4 picks that you think are value, preferably all around 5/1 or bigger, and if you only get one winner they multiply winnings by three – so I got 25 points back on my 15 points staked with just the one winner at 8/1. This would mean a 5 point loss on two Lucky 15s if they were staked equally (but they weren’t, cos one line only got “EBR” stakes and one got proper stakes 🙂 ).
24 December 2016
CHARLES EXFORD
So it turns out Joey Barton’s just had the odd 1,260 bets then, and nobody much noticed apparently.
While Tranmere’s whole history was f*cked up by a £1 bet.
24 December 2016
BOBBY SVARC
Solomn Grundy
Runs on Monday
2.25 Wetherby
Drill….
24 December 2016
BOBBY SVARC
What a surprise vendor
17 January 2017
BOBBY Svarc
BITE THE BISCUIT – Southwell 2.00 (Definitely has a chance)
HIDE THE BISCUIT – AND Down Royal 2.40 (Speculative fun bet)
31 January 2017
WARDEN HODGES
Lucky 15 that. Ta lar.
31 January 2017
WARDEN HODGES
And e/w double.
31 January 2017
bobbysvarc
Mind Your Biscuits – 2.35 Meydan. 4/1
25 March 2017
JITSU_G
Just put everything I had in my online account on Mind your Biscuits (£3.63) at 5/1
25 March 2017
bobbysvarc
Good Lad, you did well.
25 March 2017
JITSU_G
Cheers for the tip
25 March 2017
JITSU_G
Put all my winnings on Bolton to beat Shrewsbury so now up to £40, pays for two Glasgow tickets
25 March 2017
hendrix-tattoo
Won 75 quid on the Grand National today on One for Arthur.
8 April 2017
WARDEN HODGES
The Clitheroe pints are on you! H-Tat in the chair!
8 April 2017
Bobby svarc
I did tell all my friends on FB that it was bound to win, I hope you were on it Warden.
9 April 2017
WARDEN HODGES
Pound e/w. Better than nowt.
9 April 2017
Bobby svarc
Winners are grinners .
9 April 2017
QPR_Nick
Apologies if this has already been mentioned.
National League Play-off Final: Tranmere Rovers v Forest Green Rovers – does that count as the Half Man Half Biscuit derby? Doesn’t Carl support FGR?
I’ll get my coat..
8 May 2017
EXXO
Up to about 11/1 is available on Hoffmeister & Astana to both qualify. Should be about 7/1 IMHO.
15 August 2017
EXXO
The sound of a corner being turned has been murmured about. But most of the the meekest excuse for a ‘kop’ in northern England will surely admit they still feel like they are in darkest Lebanon without a radiator key and NO WAY should Tranmere be the hottest favouries in the entire top three leagues to win today. Chester are available at 9/4 not to lose their cup final and I for one am telling the world in order to hopefuly jinx my bet and propel the Rovers to a radiator-jolting victory.
(by the way Peter I also reckon your lot might have turned a corner. I cheered for that last-minute corner on Tuesday and tried to put 25pence at 22/1 on the ‘pool. Just too late).
7 October 2017
Peter Mcornithologist
thanks exxo we and Tranmere seem to be going somewhere .But Ilove them as much as my childhood
7 October 2017
EXXO
Nabil Fekir was born on Mr. B’s 30th birthday, one notices, and has a very similarly unerring left foot (kerrr-ching!)
19 October 2017
EXXO
So before Saturday Christian Eriksen had scored for Denmark 6 games in a row.
HTF is he available at 15/4 to score at any time in this game (Betfair exchange and others)?
But of course apart from that no-brainer of an investment, I hope he plays like a disappointing little statue & good luck to the boys in green.
14 November 2017
EXXO
Well that’s the trip to Dublin covered. Gimme a spork.
14 November 2017
bobby svarc
Biscuit 3.35 Exeter
15 November 2017
EXXO
Pity no EBRs in the Duchess of Westminster race today, but I bet Nigel (T-D) has a pulled up in this last at Bangor-on-Dee now.
15 November 2017
bobby svarc
I’ve had a reet good day. A 6 fold acca MC MU CHEL LIV CEL BARC, Tie -2 Man City and three hosses in a £1 E/W treble 12/1 5/1 20/1 not a winner in sight but made £54
18 November 2017
EXXO
Well played Mick. Keep it up and you’ll be posting in the ‘Cuba’ thread.
18 November 2017
POP-TART MARK
Had a good day so far after Skybet gave me £50 for half an hour of my time, and after Steve Coppell’s new lot in the ISL were more than a match for one of the worst showers of shite on the planet, Berbatov & Ian Hume & all.
So anyway, talking of cold showers, I’ll be interested to see if the money comes this evening for the brave & bonny Plough Boy, Dundalk 8.30.
Last time he went off this light was a C&D win this same night last year, and yes it was raining soup then too.
I’ll back it e/w if it’s getting backed in a bit, maybe half an hour before.
24 November 2017
EXXO
As we’re discussing papal matters today, a kind of unofficial EBR* arises, although with the inevitable asterisk. While Leicester is not a Biscuit-referenced course, veteran chaser San Pietro (Leicester, 3.15) has been an EBR winner at Bangor-on-Dee for me in the past. Runs for new yard (McCain), loves the mud and has Will Kennedy on board having won plenty of recent races for this stable. Indeed, when they’ve been backed as well as this one is, all his recent rides from McCain have won or been close second. Where to now, St. Peter?
* to be an official EBR, it has to have a HMHB reference in both horse’s name and course.
23 January 2018
EXXO
Very small Lucky 15 on the Equine Biscuit References (EBRs) @Warwick Arts Centre this av:
12.55 Swaffham Bulbeck
14.00 The Artful Cobbler
14.35 Polydor(a)
15.10 Bivouac
TBH the Swaffham one is not that fanciable, so I’ve gone bigger on Stale Craig (or similar name) at Kelso (non-Biscuit referenced track though) 12.45
Lucky 15 is of course best done with Betfred where you usually get at least your money back from one winner.
25 January 2018
bobby svarc
Dundalk
5.00 Plough Boy 9/2 [2nd]
5.30 John Honeyman 6/1 [2nd]
Decent place double
26 January 2018
EXXO
Aye, I nearly put up another L15 for Dundalk with them two, Nigg Bay in the next and something with Texas or Tennessee or Doyenne in the name, but it would have been win only.
I thought of you when Bobby Biscuit went in a couple of nights ago at Kempton.
26 January 2018
BOBBY SVARC
Ha Ha, I did see that. My dad backed it.
Placepot Uttoxeter Down by one fifty
9-1-3-6-4-6
27 January 2018
EXXO
Ha, great minds, just done 9-1-3or4-1-2-2 before I saw your picks (will pay about a fiver if either line comes I, but I just want a placepot still going at three thirthy five).
27 January 2018
EXXO
Cheltenham council may be giving hope to my plan to find a way to get Cheltenham onto the list of official EBR courses. It will soon be situated between a Swindon estate (Swindon is the village next to the racecourse) and a Cotswolds bridge or several.
http://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/wave-objections-1billion-housing-schools-617509
Anyway come on Sizing Tennessee in the 1.15
27 January 2018
BOBBY SVARC
Two at Naas today: 3.20 Mick The Boyo (UFO) and 3.50 Bilko (Papworth General) Perhaps we’re scraping the barrel but hey Ho.
28 January 2018
EXXO
Nice one Mick – winner’s enclosure rather than exclusion zone, and a decent price too.
This avvo Nigel (T-D) sends just one up to Hereford so Scotchtown will be an e/w pick for 3.40 and I’ll cobble a knobbly L15 together. In a few mins at 1.40 Rambling Rector seems a very biscuity pick indeed though so does the fav.
29 January 2018
BOBBY SVARC
Our old mate SURPRISE VENDOR goes in the lucky last at decent E/W price.
30 January 2018
EXXO
Hmm, that old mate won off this mark in the mud a year ago, and although could do with being another few pounds lower I’ll nibble ‘cos he owes me less than nowt. Another old mate BRIGADOON is back down to a winning mark at a track he likes, Rock City Notts, 1.40.
I’ll nibble now and back properly if any money comes for him near the off. In fact the same for the double.
Of course yesterday I found some more EBRs for my L15 at Lord Hereford’s. Jamie “much-much” more won on Town Parks and something with Arthur in it rocked right up too. And I never backed ’em.
Tight lines Mick.
30 January 2018
bobby svarc
Well, what a complete Surprise Vendor, I’d completely given up with it as it was about a mile behind and I went back to playing Subbuteo Angling with Evie and Alfie. Low and behold I find £15.12 in my Bet365 A/C for finishing 3rd!!.
30 January 2018
EXXO
Great shout that Mick, unlike Brigadoon who contrived to leave Luke Morris in the stalls at Rock City in the 1.40 (a very fishy sort of race all round).
I had a good day too though. You catch owt?
30 January 2018
BOBBY SVARC
Dr Des(perate) – Towcester 3.25. We won’t get rich but it’ll most probably win.
1 February 2018
EXXO
Well go on then, Towcester is basically Siverstone after all.
Dr. D. gets paired with Vocalist, who should pop up with the goods in the first to make an 8/7 double
(“Vocalist: Mick Exclusion Zone – loose cannon frontman type who had the bottle to get up and sing when no-one else would”)
2 x Rock City Notts L15’s (Betfred offer as always)
*Archie 1.30
*(Varsity)Gal / (Faithless) Pantomime 2.05
*(Brian Moore’s Head Looks uncannily like all) Planetaria 3.30
*M. (arquee) Moon 4.25
1 February 2018
EXXO
‘swan Mick. And the good thing about my double flopping in the first is that I could put extra on the obvious 1-2 forecast for Dr. D there at 5/4.
1 February 2018
bobby svarc
Quite like this Biscuity picks thing, good fun. I’ve not checked tomorrows runners yet, I like to do my picking late at night, it sort of calms me down. Dundalk on Friday might throw up a perfect biccy nap.
1 February 2018
BOBBY SVARC
(Rolling) Dylan (can’t sue) – 1.40 Chepstow : Should be a shoe in.
2 February 2018
EXXO
Well if you’re still wondering why I haven’t been able to give you the Conference winner at big odds for the third season running … It is now officially the most competitive and exciting league in Europe (not that there’s much competition).
Vanarama National League
Team – Pl – Pts
Wrexham – 32 – 56
Macclesfield – 31 – 56
Aldershot – 31 – 55
Tranmere Rov – 32 – 54
Sutton Utd – 30 – 52
Dover Ath – 31 – 51
Bromley – 31 – 50
Boreham Wood – 31 – 50
AFC Fylde – 32 – 49
5 February 2018
EXXO
Thanks for the tidy-up Chris. I find that table very beautiful when compared with all the leagues where the richest team is a million zillion points clear. Exceptions being Serie A and League One.
Anyway Mick – Boreham Bill (he’s really good) seemed like value in the 3pm at Rock City Notts (Southwell to some), but I just had the last of the 10/3 and the value may have gone now
5 February 2018
BOBBYSVARC
See also, General Malarky (Whit Week) and Hurricane Dylan (Can’t Sue) for the tricast….Nah
5 February 2018
BOBBYSVARC
Sir Geoff(rey) Southwell 3.35
6 February 2018
EXXO
Without wishing to spoil a good Friday, our old mate Barton Giftgoes this avvo in the race he won for us last year (2.10, Bangor-on-Dee). He’s been pulled up in the mulch three out of four times since then so today will surely deliver either a win, a place or the authentic equine Biscuit experience.
Commodore in the 4.25 is sure to provide that ‘pulled-up’ moment if perchance Barton Gift does not.
Suggestions for the cold and lonely in Dundalk this evening include Rock on Dandy, in practice for the summer eights at 6pm.
9 February 2018
EXXO
Cold and hungry, soz.
9 February 2018
BOBBYSVARC
A P/U double in the 4.25 with My Liege? actually it might win.
9 February 2018
EXXO
Mick – our old mate Surprise Vendor seems to have attracted a certain amount of support in the 4.55 at (point-to-point of) Ayr. Nearly 2/1 to place on Betfair seems decent after he’s won his last 3 over C&D and shown recent promise. The sweet pastures of retirement are probably only weeks away for this veteran, but this could be a last hurrah.
26 February 2018
BOBBYSVARC
Yes, I did see that. I baked it the other when he finished 3rd, he was that far behind that the groundstaff stayed late to lock up, but of course, I’ll back him. No Subbuteo Angling today either, Alfie has gone to buy his first proper guitar.
26 February 2018
EXXO
Horrible drift now though 🙁
26 February 2018
EXXO
🙁 Hope you had something on Mickieblueeyes there 🙂
26 February 2018
BOBBYSVARC
Yeah righto. I have blue eyes as well. I just lit up a Hamlet, put my feet up and watched it hose up
26 February 2018
Chris The Siteowner
Pearson in!
(Sorry, it was mentioned in the East Anglian as a possibility and I couldn’t resist)
29 March 2018
EXXO
Because there has only been any racing to spoil Good Friday since 2014, and because only in 2017 & 2018 have we ever had a Good Friday meeting at a Biscuit-referenced course (Bath), it is with some confidence that we can say that See of Rome (4.35) is the first Equine Biscuit Reference with potential to spoil Good Friday. Hasn’t run for 6 months so its relative strength in the market may be a good sign. I’ve taken the 4/1, which probably won’t last.
Was supposed to be enjoying the annual open day at the thirteen different racing stables in the beautiful Wensleydale town of Middleham today, but ill health has prevented that, or any of the trout fishing that we usually do up there every Easter.
30 March 2018
EXXO
After a walk in Bath, the jockeys decided someone up there wasn’t happy with their sacreligious shenanigans and decided to call the whole caboodle off rather than face a walk in hell. I notice pub-goers in Ireland can finally face His wrath on Good Friday now too.
30 March 2018
Bobby svarc
BLACKWELL SYNERGY Towcester 5.40. A lucky omen? Probably not. I can see the pubs shutting before this one finishes.
27 April 2018
Chris The Siteowner
Looks like Tranmere just managed to swerve the Irn Bru.
11 June 2018
parsfan
They’re coming up pre-season instead. We’re playing them on the 7th July. I do hope they don’t organise a short notice gig at The Alhambra or Carnegie Hall while taking in the game as I’ll be on holiday.
11 June 2018
dr Desperate
TNS in round two, according to what one hears.
12 June 2018
EXXO
Not an EBR, and posted with the caveat that this is once-raced 2-y-o so anything can happen, but connections fancy FANCY FOOTINGS to go well in the 5.20 Down Royal. take the 6/1 e/w and it’ll be no harm done if he’s 2nd or 3rd.
7 September 2018
EXXO
Trautmann (6pm Dundalk) wouldn’t be crossing the Irish Sea for soup in the rain. I can’t see him out of the frame and will back him e/w even at 10/3 as even 4th place will almost break even.
31 October 2018
BOBBY SVARC
We’re all Easy Boy @12/1. Hopeful more than confident
31 October 2018
Bobby Svarc
Big game at Gresty Road today, can they go second? Nigel might even cop a DRS 37 on shed. Good price too for the away win, 29/20
17 November 2018
EXXO
Crewe are 4-2-2 at home, Tranmere are 2-4-2 away; on those stats I’d only find value if the away win was 3/1.
But Rovers will score, so where the value is still available is surely at the Bank of Norwood. AGS 7/5 (with a quarter of my stake on Jennings AGS 4/1. Norwood FGS 9/2 (back it e/w with bet365 and you’re in profit if he’s AGS).
If dabbling in the match result market meself I’d go score draw at 18/5 covering the Norwood wincast at 5/2.
17 November 2018
EXXO
Ker-ching. Bank of Norwood pays out once again.
(see also the excellent rates available from Bank of Rooney, Salford branch, and bank of Adi Yussuf, which is especially generous on investments when outside the Solihull area).
17 November 2018
EXXO
By the way, Tranmere are doing OK this season, and have even got a decent player in midfield – his name is Ollie Banks and if they gave odds for assists in this league we could rely on the regular withdrawals from the Bank of Banks. But it’s mid-table stuff overall, and they have been in a bit of a false position recently. Betting-wise, apart from the Bank of Norwood, swerve.
17 November 2018
EXXO
In tonight’s televised replay, Bet365 are making Oxford City striker Kabongo Tshimanga an almost obligatory e/w punt by offering the Prenton Park hat-trick hero at 10/1 FGS. If he scores anytime you’d still then make an overall 116% profit. Congolese fun’s worth, Glaswegian loons.
Of course I’ll be doing Norwood e/w in the same market too.
20 November 2018
EXXO
Bank of Norwood PLC paid 333%interest in 7 minutes there.
20 November 2018
POP-TART MARK
Something needs to happen to jolt the sleeping giant, the mighty FK Traktortown out of the rut they have ploughed themselves into in 2018. A change of manager, perhaps? Nope, that doesn’t ever seem to do the trick. No, what can surely do it, if anything can change their luck, is a tip from Pop-Tart Mark that they have no chance tonight. Their loyal fans haven’t seen win at home since April, and that was the only one since January. At this rate, when they snuff it their loyal spouses won’t even be able to give their season tickets away.
But… what’s this? they seem to have accumulated some points! How so, sir?
9 home draws in the last 15. That’s not a stat, that’s a pattern. A nasty, frustrating, bang your heads on a girder on the way out sort of pattern.
And yet the Pride of Suffolk are still 13/5 to draw, you say? And with your money back if WBA win, you can still get 13/10 on the draw? By gad sir I’m sorely tempted.
But meanwhile I’m dressed as a Dandy in practice for the 5.30 at Dundalk.
23 November 2018
Chris The Siteowner
Just on my way to the ground. I’m tipping a narrow 4–6 home defeat.
23 November 2018
EXXO
Shame. Safe home Chris. They gave it a much better go second half and that was a penalty on Lankester before the goal as well. Don’t often get given for that sort of shove, but he took the lad out when he had a chance.
On the plus side, Ipswich haven’t played a competitive fixture v. Mansfield in our lifetimes, and that’s looking an evens shout for next season.
23 November 2018
Bobby Svarc
So shine on
Shine on Harvey Barnes
23 November 2018
Gipton Teenager
I’ve just seen what I reckon is the best game of football I’ve ever seen on TV . I refer to the Craggy Island v Rugged Island over 75s Five-a-Side competition on Father Ted.
24 December 2018
Gipton Teenager
Palindrome.
24 December 2018
EXXO
Iran look value to win the AFC Cup at 4/1 (Betway).
12 January 2019
POP-TART MARK
Looking at the tables you’ve got to wonder if it could be the first ever clean sweep of all for leagues for the HMHB references. Lincoln-Luton-Leeds-LIPA. No value in the fourfold at any available odds though.
29 January 2019
Bobby Svarc
Bobby Biscuit 1.50 Lingfield
30 January 2019
EXXO
Pearson in.
30 January 2019
BOBBY SVARC
Ha!
30 January 2019
IDIOT SAUL
A few Wirral wagers landed in the first race at Beverley this afternoon?
1st 7. Birkenhead 13/8F
17 April 2019
EXXO
Did the owner/trainer whirl away with a broad grin, doing the windmill celebration?
17 April 2019
IDIOT SAUL
I don’t recall any alternative celebrations in the Channon canon.
18 April 2019
BOBBY SVARC
Fox Champion
18 April 2019
POP-TART MARK
The Gosden one that only just got beat by Fox Champion at Donny the other week, by just half a length only after having to switch and try to squeeze a way through, runs in the 1.50 and I’ve backed it over the unraced favourite.
One I fancy at Ripon too
17:45 – Nibras Again @ 10/1 e/w
Winner off 1lb lower last September.
Changed yard and has had two decent runs on the AW this winter, nothing spectacular but has been kept sharp
The yard have had a winner and 2nd from two races this week.
18 April 2019
IDIOT SAUL
Fingers crossed that Franz Kafka comes through The Trial and makes The Metamorphosis into a winner for you.
18 April 2019
POP-TART MARK
Would have been absurd not to do the w/o fav and the f/c as well so a far from Kafkaesque result.
Which in turn franked the form nicely for Fox Champion – good shout Mick.
18 April 2019
IDIOT SAUL
The Fox is Champion! That’s a Channon winner yesterday and a Hannon winner today. Only Connect fans will be looking for a horse trained by someone called Annon tomorrow.
18 April 2019
BOBBY SVARC
Facebook [Micky Hoss Tips] we have a bit of fun
18 April 2019
EXXO
The value might have gone now but Show me a Sunset 2.10 Newcastle is not expected to spoil Good Friday.
19 April 2019
EXXO
But did spoil Good Friday.
19 April 2019
EXXO
Only Connect fans kicking themselves they never backed Annan today, as the Galabankies romp to a spanking triumph.
20 April 2019
Bobby Svarc
Constitutional at Southwell
21 April 2019
IDIOT SAUL
The winner being called Littledidyouknow seems to rub it in unnecessarily.
21 April 2019
Bobby Svarc
Tranmere and Birkenhead double pays 8/1
10 May 2019
Bobby Svarc
BANGKOK is a live each-way bet for the Derby.
Trained at Kingsclere, as was Flying Fox who won the Derby in 1899. The A3 locomotive was sheded in Leicester in the mid fifties but that is going a bit too far. A few of us on my Micky Hoss Tips Facebook page backed it back in March at 33s and 28s. The King Power chairman and monks will be looking down.
27 May 2019
IDIOT SAUL
Flying Fox (the Derby winner rather than the loco) was owned by Duke of Westminster (and his good lady wife).
27 May 2019
EXXO
Good birthday stage this for our man, some classic climbing breakaways. I just got on the Basque lad at 5/1, and got the Austrian covered as it reaches a finale.
18 July 2019
EXXO
Yees, great finish, got on Yates as he got into the best position to attack…
18 July 2019
EXXO
PARODY goes at Newton Abbot in about two minutes (2.15)
As a supreme act of self-parody, I’ll take it to win and MOAN, CROSS to be second, in a straight forecast.
A treble of Parody (2.15), (Mark) CHAPMAN’s Hype (3.15) to be either 1st or 2nd, and NOEL (Edmonds)’s Boy to be either 1st or 2nd (5.15) pays over 4/1 for me. But not with William Hills.
29 July 2019
BOBBY SVARC
Excellent tipping Exxo, swerved the treble but had a nifty on the FC
29 July 2019
EXXO
Some posh value around tonight. Peterborough took a while to get going this season, but have won their last 5 games impressively to nil, withan aggregate of 17-0. They have been scaring defences into mistakes, and will terrify Tranmere tonight.
Tranmere have been shite, and on the right side of their defence they have not found any sort of replacement for the injured Caprice, their best remaining player IMHO.
Peterborough will win tonight, but by how many? Asian -1 looks very good at 17/10 (888/Uni) ie money back if they just win by one
I’ve also nibbled normal -3 at 20/1 with Skybet.
Eisa has scored in 4 of his last 5 6/4 anytime (many firms) is better value than 11/5 score& win
Toney in 7 of his last 11 ditto -6/4 anytime (many firms) is better value than 11/5 score& win
Maddison has scored in 9 of his last 19 13/5 (Betfair sportsbook) anytime is much better value than 10/3 score& win. He takes the pens and Tranmere’s hapless defence have already conceded 4 pens this season. Nibbled him at 15/2 FGS (Boyles) as well.
Peterborough win to nil looks a decent shade of value too at 9/4 with most firms and a touch higher with Corals/Boyles … but I don’t fancy it as much as the handicaps tonight.
17 September 2019
Bobby Svarc
Did you cash out?
17 September 2019
EXXO
Ha, no, normally I might have laid on the exchange when it was looking good (for Posh) after 60 mins, but was too busy watching the CL game (with profits there). Sounded like a proper rousing comeback by Rovers. Bet the drums were going something rotten (doing Nigel’s head in, no doubt). It’s not often that Tranmere can say they’ve scuppered a fourfold with Napoli, Salzburg and Leipzig. Made a bit back with those Peterboro scorers – now 5 out of 6 and 8 out of 12 respectively (that’s games scored in, not goals in games).
17 September 2019
EXXO
Got on Little Simz at 8/1 and she’s 3/1 now … can she pip the lad from Billing to the prize we treat with awe?
(got the jazz shite covered at 33/1 too)
Betr of the night has to be the United win to nil at 5/4 though.
19 September 2019
EXXO
Who does Joey Barton hate most? Liverpool FC, possibly? Kids who are better at football than he is, probably? What does Joey Barton love most? Gambling & winning football games? What’s the only way in which he is now allowed to gamble? By weighing up all the pros and cons of playing his first team against Liverpool’s under 21’s when half of Liverpool’s under 21’s are already playing for the first team at Franchise FC?
All these factors come together at Highbury tonight. The value might have gone, and the handicap/spread has shifted by a whole goal since this bandwagon started to roll last night, but still worth a few bob on the minus one?
25 September 2019
EXXO
Who does Joey Barton hate most? Liverpool FC, possibly? Kids who are better at football than he is, probably? What does Joey Barton love most? Gambling & winning football games? What’s the only way in which he is now allowed to gamble? By weighing up all the pros and cons of playing his first team against Liverpool’s under 21’s when half of Liverpool’s under 21’s are already playing for the first team at Franchise FC?
All these factors come together at Highbury tonight. The value might have gone, and the handicap/spread has shifted by a whole goal since this bandwagon started to roll last night, but still worth a few bob on the minus one?
25 September 2019
EXXO
Sorry about that. That became quite a bandwagon on Merseyside – a “choo-choo” as we call them, when it’s “all aboard the gamble” – everyone convinced Barton would put out the first team against the LFC kids … but he didn’t.
25 September 2019
BOBBY SVARC
Bobby Biscuit WUMBAH!!
3 October 2019
POP-TART MARK
Fate surely decrees all winnings should be chucked back onto Neil the Legend e/w in the 2.35 at Warwick Arts Centre.
3 October 2019
BOBBY SVARC
I’ve chucked £4 back at 13/2. under starters orders…….
3 October 2019
BOBBY SVARC
APLOMB York 3.50
12 October 2019
EXXO
Pearson out!
Next time someone says Leicester have more points at this stage of the season than the season they won the title, tell them Liverpool have more points at this stage of the season than any of the 18 seasons when they won the title. Or than when anyone else won the title.
14 December 2019
BOBBY SVARC
The Mickys are a good team. Well done. Champions 2019/20
14 December 2019
EXXO
I’m not saying that at all. Seen too many disappointments. Just a bit bored with journos saying that same sentence about Leicester as if they’re all the only one saying it.
14 December 2019
BOBBY SVARC
If you throw this away then you’ll be bigger bottlers than Hoyes pop. Spurs did finish third in a two-horse race in 2015 so anything can happen I suppose.
14 December 2019
EXXO
I don’t think so – Liverpool have played well 2 or 3 times this season (in all comps) and could easily have lost today. If they lose it now, it’ll be cos Man City win every game, maybe draw one, and Liverpool lose two or three (say at Spurs in Jan and City in April plus one other random one) and draw 3, 4 or 5 spread throughout the busy weeks in between . Could easily lose the title, while continuing to play not that well, with 95,96,97 points … or even 98 on goal difference.
14 December 2019
Bobby Svarc
We’re 7 points in front of Man City, albeit they have a game in hand (Arsenal today) . Our next two games are Man City away and home to the mickys on Boxing Night. Could be interesting.
15 December 2019
EXXO
BOBBY BISCUIT, 3.45 Newcastle. I wouldn’t have touched it in a field that size at the opening 6/4, but at 5/2 now I’ll have a go on the exchange, hoping I can lay it back off. Of course if they’ve laid it heavily at 6/4 it can pay for the yard’s Xmas without winning … but I made some decent cash last night on the LFC kids getting a beating, so willing to take a risk on this one.
18 December 2019
BOBBY SVARC
You backed your team to lose?
18 December 2019
EXXO
It was only the kids. But I would never confuse punting with sentimental feelings or support for a team, never. As you can tell from last Saturday’s posts, I am very objective, and as I know most about ‘my team’ (just as in League One I know most about how shit Tranmere are, in Czech I know most about how shit Dukla are, in Germany I know how shit St. Pauli are) so I tend to know when they are overpriced, particularly on the Asian handicap markets (which are also the lowest overround markets)…. which is very often indeed. The odds were wrong last night, simple as, and that’s the only time you should ever really bet, isn’t it?
Usually this season with Liverpool I’m winning money on the Asian handicaps against Liverpooland Liverpool are winning the match. Win-win. It may well be the same today v. Monterrey in Qatar. At evens on the Asian -2 I’ll only lose money if Liverpool win by 3, which in this heat against that oppo is unlikely. It’s more likely we’ll win by less than two than by more than two. So I have value. But I’ll be happy to lose.I never bet enough to hope that I don’t lose my money.
I appreciate that most people can’t do it but like I say I am very objective.
Then of course there’s “insurance betting” which I do a lot of when I have a comfortable amount of money, but that’s a completely separate thing, just like holiday insurance. Say “Liverpool win this cup or I get £500” sort of thing. You don’t get holiday insurance hoping to be mugged (well, not usually …). It would be daft for people who really care about winning the league not to have insurance on City at current odds, with stakes covered on your lads, but I appreciate mmost people can’t do it. they seem to think that the bet will change how they feel about supporting their team. Weird to me. A bet is a bet, support is support, and they never affect each other.
18 December 2019
BOBBY SVARC
City as in Manchester or the other one 😉 BTW I did The City at 25/1 BWO Liverpool and Manchester C.
18 December 2019
EXXO
That’s a very good bet. You’re the team most likely to finish 3rd, which is where I think you’ll most likely be on Boxing Day evening, though I hope you get second.
18 December 2019
EXXO
The drift on Bobby Biscuit contnues. Long way through freezing fog on the A1 from Newmarket to Newcastle. Swerve.
18 December 2019
BOBBY SVARC
Dr Des at Uttoxeter 1.10…..Placepot Down?
20 December 2019
BOBBY SVARC
No, it’s not.:-)
20 December 2019
Ferencvaros fan
Time Flies By.
Running in 2 mins at Ascot.
20 December 2019
EXXO
Haha, yebbut have you seen who won the 13.10 at Uttoxeter?
If it wasn’t for this pesky meddlin’ quiz and that damn dawg I’d have been all over that one!
20 December 2019
EXXO
Haha, posted that before I saw the post from Mick, soz.
20 December 2019
Bobby Svarc
Placepot Uttoxeter up by two fifty nine. Only one 25p line but hey ho.
20 December 2019
hendrix-tattoo
Tranmere Rovers v Man. Utd?
Could be played on the 24th Jan.?
That would be interesting?
6 January 2020
EXXO
I think whoever plays who (and my money’s on Watford v. Wolves) they won’t make it the Friday tie because it’s just too short notice after the replays.
Meanwhile @Leeds Tony: it’s funny the way things work out but a scumbag has died in Blackpool, which means that his son is coming over from Perth Oz for the funeral, and the son is lovely and is a mate of Mrs E’s who she hasn’t seen for yonks, and another lovely mate Blackpool mate of his &hers has decided to come over from Sydney Oz in solidarity, which means that it looks like Mrs. E is very unlikely to be able to drive us to (& more relevantly from) Hull.
6 January 2020
EXXO
LCFC & MCFC night tonight.
Both cities to win by more than 1 pays nearly 5/1
Both to win by more than 2 pays 17/1
Both to win by more than 3 pays nearly 70/1
7 January 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Crossley Tender – Lingfield 1-35
13 January 2020
EXXO
@Mick. Interesting (ie profitable at SP according to the stats from last 5 seasons), when Dascombe takes just one or two horses down south midweek in the winter on the AW. His regular pilot Richard Kingscote has these two for him tonight and no other rides on the card.
Kempton 6.30 – Phuket Power @ 6/1 e/w – King Power Racing horse. Only win from 3 AW trips has been here over C&D
Kempton 7.30 – Mickey @ 25/1 e/w (4 places) – this one maybe going down just to keep the main chance company? 2nd off this mark at Wolves late last year but two poor runs since.
22 January 2020
FERENCVAROS FAN
@EXXO: I agree there is a lot to like about Phuket Power. CD winner last month with 4th and 5th in that race winning since.
Bridgewater (sic) Bay @12/1 not without an e/w chance in the 7:30 in what is a wide open race. Another CD winner, with Jamie Spencer an eye-catching first time booking.
GL to all who play
22 January 2020
EXXO
Phuket’s form franked by the fortitude and fight of the five thirty winner there.
22 January 2020
EXXO
Mrs. Exxo started playing London Calling on guitar about ten minutes before the off without knowing I was about to watch a race with a nag of that name which was about to beat mine by a length. Ah well 6/1 e/w no harm done.
22 January 2020
Bobby Svarc
I went for the LCFC double, 2nd and 3rd, unfortunately.
23 January 2020
Ferencvaros fan
Time Flies By.
Runs at Chelters tomorrow 3pm.
Looks a particularly trappy race. Almost any outcome possible. Maybe best watched.
24 January 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Today Power runs Saturday at Lingfield. If it doesn’t win that then I’m afraid it’s Belgium calling. I hear that KPR have bought a shed load of juveniles. I run a racing site on FB, Micky Hoss Tips
24 January 2020
FErencvaros fan
Legend Of Zorro 14:55 Chepstow tomorrow. I have sympathy for anybody trying to work out the form for this trip over fences. You could argue a case for just about the entire field. If it were me I would stick a pin in the page.
Fun bet instead on the lightly raced mate Theatre Mix in the next, with some bookies paying for the first 5. If she can reproduce her 4th out of 10 at the end of 2018 over similar ground she might just sneak a place…
30 January 2020
dr desperate
Oh, big truck, Innsbruck, King of the Hill.
Cock A Doodle Doo (16/1).
30 January 2020
IDIOT SAUL
I don’t know much about the Highway Code, but for Zorro to fence his way to victory, or Doodle Doo to become Cock of the Chepstow hill, they’ve got to beat On The Road. Biscuity tricast anyone?
31 January 2020
Ferencvaros fan
Really looking forward to the race now thanks to these Biscuity allusions. FWIW I think On The Road will run a big race. Has course form, which counts for a lot over fences at Chepstow, and can also handle the conditions. Zorro may be in the grip of the handicapper and ground an unknown. With, Cock A Doodle Do there are a lot of unknowns, hence the price.
There appears to be a bit of interest in Theatre Mix, although 33s still available. IMO better chance of making the first 5 than me troubling the scorer in a HMHB quiz!
31 January 2020
Bobby Svarc
Nigel Nott – 2.45 Lingfield
31 January 2020
dr desperate
Indian Brave just held on at Chepstow, beating On The Road into second. Zorro 6th, my pick a pulled-up.
31 January 2020
Ferencvaros fan
On The Road was unlucky. I think Indian Brave had to win in the stewards’ room as well as on the track.
Good bit of escapism on what I agree has been something of an NSD.
31 January 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Phuket Power and Bangkok, Lingfield Saturday.
Nigel Nott won
31 January 2020
EXXO
Well in with the three shorties there Friday/Saturday, Mick.
I’m on one of Dascombe’s again today, and it’s a partial EBR as it’s Arcanada (sic)
I’m only really on it cos I got 10/1 e/w @ (straight down) Ladbrokes early doors, for 3 places in a 7-horse race where a couple of others have impressive recent A/W records. Alas those odds are long gone now and the value if there was any has probably gone.
But FWIW, Arcanada has been a profitable horse on the a/w in the past. Won this same class 2 race off today’s same mark 2 years ago – when he was odds-on favourite of just 3 runners mind – but was a “disappointing favourite” last year, finishing last of 5 – IMO that could easily just mean they knew he was carrying too much and needed to come back down the weights as the performance was too bad to be true, and they could well have made money just on him going off favourite.
Been off since mid October but has been 2nd and won after long breaks earlier in career.
the yard are in consistent form with 4 placed efforts in the last 5 races over the past 14 days.
3 February 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Exxo: SDS returns tonight to ride Fox Power after wintering in Honkers. It will be a tough ask but the last time De Sousa was up it won, it’s a mile tonight so that’s in its favour. Not without an E/W shout even if there are only 7 runners (5/1)
3 February 2020
BOBBY SVARC
2:25 Ascot
Domaine De L’lsle 4/1
Loves the wind
15 February 2020
EXXO
Pearson out!
28 June 2020
this leaden paul
Missed out on Arcanada yesterday as well
28 June 2020
EXXO
18/1 Arconada, yeah, sigh. I’m kicking myself that I was too busy kicking myself after missing one in a race just a few mins earlier. In a near re-run of a Blackwell gig joke, but one which doesn’t quite work cos it was at ten to two, a horse I’d previously backed came in at the exact same time, and a very nice price, three weeks later.
29 June 2020
this leaden paul
4.15 at Bath
Horse number 4 – Plath
2 July 2020
EXXO
4.20 sees Kitzbuhel, 3.20 the well-balanced Lincoln Gamble. Dancing in the streets of Redcar if this EBR double comes in, otherwise high-pitched lamentations otherwise and off to hawk the old man’s braces, ‘cos Galway week starts tonight.
27 July 2020
EXXO
4.50 sees Kitzbuhel, in fact.
27 July 2020
IDIOT SAUL
Hit the woodwork! Tough luck Exxo.
27 July 2020
EXXO
Was super confident on a top 2 finish for both, so profits were made.
I had a lot of fun with that 4.50 race. Watching the money, I had a hunch that one of my favourite MIddleham yards (Bethell) had a bit of a sneaky place gamble going on, with their grey 200/1 shot (Jervaulx) going off in front and trying to pull their 100/1 shot (Benedictine) into a place. It nearly gave me the tricast, but I was happy enough with the 9/2 for top 4 finish.
27 July 2020
Ferencvaros Fan
With Galway and Goodwood both taking place today, there is the potential for it to get messy.
Yury Gagarin takes his chance in the 1:45 at Goodwood. Not without a shout, but maybe best watched in what seems like an ultracompetitive renewal.
Had a small ew play @18s on Maries (sic) Diamond in the 2:45, with first 4 to pay. Some huge price winners and placed horses since the restart, and suspect today will be no exception. Good luck to all who play.
28 July 2020
dr desperate
Thanks George, might suggest Elizabeth’s friend Marie Diamond risk her little all on that one.
28 July 2020
Ferencvaros fan
GL John. Some money coming in for him, but he will still have to outrun his odds to place.
In the interests of accuracy I need to point out that the horse is called Marie’s Diamond. I noted the name from an odds comparison site. The apostrophe police can stand down.
28 July 2020
EXXO
What’s the point of Ayr? Perhaps not exactly a medal-winning red, but Medal Winner in the 3.30 (still worth a build-your-own e/w bet on Betfair) and Readman 12.55 is my EBR double today, and Stockbridge Tap (3.00) from the yard I mentioned yesterday makes up a trixie even though it’s not an EBR.
28 July 2020
FERENCVAROS FAN
With the focus on Galway and Goodwood, expect to see a plot horse or two at Ayr. Black Friday in the last @14s might surprise. Something of a sucker for trying to spot long shots, but you only need to be right once in a while to hold your own.
28 July 2020
EXXO
In that race I’ll take you on with an e/w on Dubai Acclaim at 15/2.
When I see a Loughnane horse at 5/4 I know there must be value elsewhere …
28 July 2020
EXXO
That was before I checked around for prices. 11/1 on Betfair, even.
28 July 2020
Ferencvaros fan
@EXXO: Can see the case for Dubal Acclaim. GL
Still laughing at the 1:30. Reely Bonnie runs like a pig till she gets a handicap mark then drops in trip and wins at 25/1.
28 July 2020
EXXO
Yes, and not a sign of it in the betting. I look for clues on Betfair, like one or two disproportionate bets for it to be in the top two, or one or two big e/w bets, but that must have been a very disciplined little plot by the yard that one, the odds just did not narrow up to the off.
28 July 2020
EXXO
My three were all unbelievably crap, but my affiliation to marvellous Middleham (where I regularly spend a bit of time) is making me a few quid today on the Johnstons and O’Keefes.
28 July 2020
Ferencvaros fan
@EXXO: well spotted re Dubai Acclaim.
Both my pick able to run their race so cannot complain.
28 July 2020
EXXO
Not sure yours wanted to do much but get the mark down, but thanks to you for making me look at the race at all 🙂
Had a similar piece of luck with the 3.45 Goodwood, I just noticed O’keefe’s one being written off at 28/1 by some pundit because of the sharp 5f downhill gallop, and I happen to know he’s got a sharp 5f downhill gallop right outside the yard…
28 July 2020
BOBBY SVARC
William Bligh – Goodwood 3.45
30 July 2020
POP-TART MARK
Among those going for a walk in Bath this evening are
Hedging 5.30
Cassidy Jo 7.00
Paintball Wizard 8.00
I’m having a Lucky 15 punt combo of them 3 and the outsider in the 5.20 at Stratford Arts Centre, Murray Mount, as there’s a rumour he’s Henman Hill running in disguise.
Might as well also punt Birkie Queen in the 7.30, which is probably named after the Queens up the road.
19 August 2020
EXXO
It can’t have escaped anyone’s notice that today’s 3.00 race at Hereford is The Fred and Mercy Rimell Memorial Handicap Chase, making it pretty much an EBR Holy Race of Obligation (along with such races as next month’s The Duchess of Westminster Memorial Chase at Bangor-on-Dee). The race is very open and frankly nothing leaps off the page at the prices, but Tikkinthebox is consistent and tends to do well at Biscuit-referenced tracks.
More genuine EBRs at The Knob today for those who fancy a trixie are Aye Aye Charlie in the 1.50 and the especially flavoursome Young Buck in the 2.25. Mick may even find one in the first to complete a lucky 15.
Marseille are a Biscuit punting reference of sorts too I suppose, and seem a touch overpriced (DNB) in the CL tonight.
21 October 2020
lord leominster
I would pop along later as that’s only up the road for me, but it’s raining. Mind you, I should go to see if I can collect my winnings (all of £5) from the bookie the last time I went, about 15 years ago. I wonder what I did with that betting slip? I hope the bookie is alive and well and has kept my winnings to one side for me.
21 October 2020
IDIOT SAUL
Fontwell 3.45 Mine’s A Pint
Presumably having a prep run before the Badger Ales Trophy ar Wincanton.
21 October 2020
EXXO
Nice pick (as in “pulling a nice pick from my leg I staggered on”). I must admit I dutched that one with the jolly and had a lot of fun with that race and Hereford generally yesterday. Young Buck’s charms did not prove fraudulent.
Dundalk, Liege and Gent go in the Europa League tonight and I can’t see any of them getting more than a point. The treble of none of them to win pays just 5/4, go Dundalk to lose and the others not to win and that’s 9/4, go all three to lose and that’s nearly 10/1.
(but my proper non-Biscuit bet tonight is a 5/1 treble of Sociedad, Sparta and BTTS in Liberec).
22 October 2020
EXXo
Sorry Slavia – not Sparta – my pick is. I didn’t do that deliberately, but while I’m here for Fall fans I might as well, I think of this track when I hear certain horrible ads for betting firms on the radio:
Come on have a bet (Hey!)
So I can win (Hey!)
This is not a poem (Hey!)
For the bin (Hey!)
I don’t have a jack knife (Hey!)
It went up the hill (Hey!)
I don’t know if I’ll get it back (Hey!)
By hook or crook I will (Hey!)
English Chelsea fan (Hey!)
This is your last game (Hey!)
We’re not Galatasary (Hey!)
We’re not Sparta F.C. (Hey!)
We’re Slavia!
22 October 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Oh Vienna!
22 October 2020
EXXO
Well after that nice clutch of FBR trebles last Thursday, tonight’s doubles should see goals in Inter’s end, both ends in fact, and at both ends at SupercalafragilisticBMG. The double of both teams to score in both games pays better than 6/4 if you’re looking in the right place.
27 October 2020
EXXO
Hmm. Perhaps best back a string of nil-nils when I suggest BTTS multiples.
I shall draw an ugly veil over an appalling prediction by saying that Inter’s new away kit is one of the worst execrations I have ever seen.
Meanwhile a decent spread bet against a weak Tranmere side tonight is currently going rather well and Atalanta + Porto DNB + Crawley DNB is another treble.
27 October 2020
Ferencváros fan
Glorious Zoff runs in the 2:15 Juvenile Hurdle at Sedgefield tomorrow. No certainties in racing now that Frankel has retired, but this Gordon Elliot-trained 3 yr old comes close. Way too short a price to tempt me to play though.
4 November 2020
EXXO
You could take Skybet’s 11/4 boosted double with Elliot’s one to win the first race, then as cover either lay that first one on the exchange as & when it goes odds-on in-running … or back the other one that can win that first race when it sneaks a bit higher, say 6/4.
Ah pish the Sky boost’s just been cut to 5/2 (showing what good value it was at 11/4) but I’ll have a tenner on that anyway. Rule number one: get the bet on before you tell yer pals online.
I only back these type of headline odds boosts if they seem to be loss-leaders. Like last night Betway gave a lovely 250% loss-leader boost on the banker treble of Chelsea, Barca & Juve (pity Accy Stanley weren’t playing this week). They just hope you’ll have no discipline like most punters and give it all back. Max bet allowed for me on their boosts is 13 euros for some reason, but still that 26 euro win goes a long way in my punting week if I have discipline.
Tonight all the Biscuit-referenced teams to lose again – a bet I’ve done well on twice now. Gent and Dundalk to lose pays 5/4, then cautiously include Liege to lose as a draw-no-bet and the treble is 11/4.
5 November 2020
Ferencváros fan
@Exxo:
GL. You are a far more clued-punter than me. So far at any rate, I haven’t been able to get my head around doing the exchanges or laying bets. It’s much more a garden shed enterprise. I love trying to spot long shots, and, like Kenny Rogers’ gambler, hope that when it’s all done I’ve broken even.
All that said, I couldn’t spot any lively outsiders last night, so settled for the following 130/1 ew treble:
Just So Cool 2:40 Mra
Azzerti 3:05 New
Millie The Minx 3:25 Sed
Surprised to see Azzerti on the drift today but prices have shortened for the other 2.
I can practically recall every winning football bet I’ve ever placed, which is why I hardly ever touch the football. Best watched for me. Know when to walk away, know when to run. Thanks Kenny.
5 November 2020
EXXO
Breaking even, or even just almost even, is the best realistic aim in the long-term, certainly!
The boosted double offer has now gone, and Elliot’s only realistic rival in the 12.10 is already out to 6/4, so I’m hopeful that a £6.67 cover bet on that one could give me £18.33 profit on the Elliot double.
5 November 2020
IDIOT SAUL
FF@243 You could always double up on Equus Dancer for the Bowens in the following race at Sedgefield, but it disappointed last season.
5 November 2020
FerencvÁros fan
Equus Dancer maybe best watched on his chase debut, but what do I know? Just guessing, like everyone. Will keep an eye out though.
Bad day for Gordon Elliot, and more to the point for the horse, after the first at Sedgefield. To be hoped the remainder of today’s runners and riders stay safe and well.
Of my 3 picks, it’s now Just So Cool’s turn to drift slightly. Think there may be going concerns, as he seems to prefer soft ground. Have backed all 3 individually. Will finish ahead if one of them wins…
5 November 2020
EXXO
Well I’d rather watch Zoff with an interest, before I then go fishing for a few hours, so I’ve doubled him with Hello Me (4.25 Chelm) and a small treble with the shortie in the one after that at Chelmsford too.
Talking of almost breaking even, one of my favourite bets is a small stakes Lucky 15 with Betfred as if your picks are all around 5/1 to you only need one winner to break even on their offer. If I’ve been fishing for an hour or two without a bite, checking these on my phone will sustain me:
4.25 Jazzy Socks/Marta Boy
4.45 Creedmoor/Dashing Dick
4.55 Vitruve
6.15 Highfield Princess
Then back home to check whether Gent are up against it in Belgrade (NAP).
5 November 2020
Lux inferior
Morning VICAR…SHIT hot bet @ 11/4 in the 15:05 at Newbury.
(Apologies for the caps, but I can never get anything to send with bold formatting on here.)
5 November 2020
FerencvÁros fan
Gordon burns at Sedgefield. Two hot faves, one dnf, one nutted on the run to the line.
5 November 2020
Ferencváros fan
The Equus Dancer/Morning Vicar double would have paid out well. Chapeaux to LI and IS for the spots.
5 November 2020
BOBBY SVARC
BLACKO 1.45 Hunt (Lead singer bloke)
TOWN PARKS 2.07 Here (Hall Band, Linnet….Yeah right, OK)
10 November 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Market Resen 3.33 Doctor Ken (Desperate Hancock)
19 November 2020
Ferencváros fan
Time Flies By 12:55 Ascot tomorrow if backing odds on faves floats your boat.
Count Meribel in the 2:05 looks good for a place.
Each way long shot Fingal’s Hill 3:33 Catterick, price contracting but 20s still available. Just a hunch. Small stake only as always.
19 November 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Good Boy Bobby 1.15 Haydock Park
21 November 2020
IDIOT SAUL
I see that Good Boy Bobby hit the beans. So did the Queen in the last at Ascot. Don’t know if she came up with the name Hamilton’s Fantasy, but it’s by Mount Nelson out of Romantic Dream.
Another horse to finish 2nd was The Turtle Said in the last at Huntingdon.
Anyway, Skipping On trained by Laura Morgan runs in the 2nd race at Uttoxeter tomorrow. Presumably his hooves are immaculate.
21 November 2020
FEREncváros fan
EQUUS Millar runs in the 2:08 at Exeter. Certainly not without a chance in this trappy affair. You can argue a case for a lot of the field. Each way punt on Night Of Sin…
21 November 2020
BOBBY SVARC
CROSSLEY Tender (CROSSLEY Do) 1.33 Exeter
22 November 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Made it happen, bass player
22 November 2020
EXXO
Sometimes there’s a horse you follow ‘cos its won for you a few times and you feel a certain loyalty… and anyway “it owes me nothing.”
The treble I’ve recommended three times now, and which has come in three times, could well come in again tonight in the Europa League – Dundalk, Gent and Standard Liege all to lose. They all have 0 points in their groups. However I can’t see any value in the prices for the Dundalk game & the value tonight only seems to be on the DNB double of both the Belgian outfits to lose, which pays about 15/4 with Betfair sportsbook (and better than evens if one of them gets a draw).
26 November 2020
EXXO
Blimey, down to ten men and the mighty Beige Army finally decides to pull out an above-Standard performance.
I’m actually quite glad I lost cos the way this gambler’s mind works I’d have spent the rest of the evening working out which side of 3,000/1 it would have been had I backed all the 12 defeats in the group for those 3 sides so far as one acca.
26 November 2020
EXXO
Tranmere live on BBC2 and the i-player tonight and they do seem a good shade of value against an opponent 50 places below them. Whisper it quietly but and experienced Rovers outfit has been slipping nicely into gear and as long as Sid bloody Nelson doesn’t play they are looking like play-off contenders. All that without a manager but he won’t change much tonight.
Tranmere on the Asian minus one (money back if they win by 1) is better than evens.
27 November 2020
FErencváros fan
Living in a T3 area and supporting a team in a different T3 area so no live football for me for some time, but I am looking forward to trying to spot the Tony Gubba lookalikes tonight.
(Me too! – CtSO)
27 November 2020
EXXO
I wonder if tonight’s commentator will not only reference his illustrious erstwhile colleague, but fairly attribute his share of the credit for the recent upturn in Rovers’ performances?
27 November 2020
EXXO
Just remembered that I used to be on very good terms with the bloke who is now Tranmere’s official match photographer @richardault83. Great fella.
If you were to tweet him and ask he should be able to get you the best possible stills of the Gubba lookalikes, especially given that you’ve put money in the coffers.
27 November 2020
Alice van der meer
The last game of football I watched was England vs Iceland (when in Reykjavik, do as the… err… Reykjavickians), but I think I could be persuaded to watch Tranmere tonight although, TBH, it’s more for the Gubba Lookalikes than the football.
I know, I’m a heretic…
27 November 2020
Borough Surveyor
Friday night and the gate is low. (Nil in fact, apart from the Marine manager.)
27 November 2020
FERENCVáROS FAN
Cracking winning goal. Saw some close ups of lookalikes, but none of the Gubba ones.
Something of a trip down Memory Lane for me. Have previously had a season ticket for my local non-league side, Solihull Moors, when time constraints prevented me from getting to Preston matches. No less than 6 of the Brackley starting XI had previously played for Moors. Also, co-commentator Karen Carney sat just in front of me at Moors for a couple of seasons but, sticking to the maxim of not meeting your heroes, I never did try to speak to her.
Saw both Brackley and Tranmere at the Moors when we were in the same division, and I even went to an away match at Brackley. It has to be said that Moors’ record against Tranmere was abysmal. I witnessed 2 heavy home defeats but was not at Prenton Park to see the home side narrowly shade it by 8 goals to nil.
I remember Tranmere had a big unit at the back called Steve McNulty, who immediately came in for stick from the home fans on account of his size, although as the game progressed you could see that he was running the show. At the end of the season in a straw poll in the club bar, a few of us agreed that he was the one opposition player you would like in your side. He must be a legend at Tranmere.
Will await the draw for round 3 with interest. Moors needing to get past Morecambe to join Preston, Tranmere, and the rest of them in the hat.
28 November 2020
EXXO
Yes, great goal. I think that lad Woolery will become a key player from Rovers this season. But what a terrible performance from the BBC production team & matchday director not to feature their erstwhile colleague at all, nor any of the 4 or 5 cardboard canine cut-outs. Not a classic, so surely the viewers would have appreciated a bit of local colour and humour.
Bur Karen Carney. What a great co-commentator she is (I hear her a lot on 5Live). You can be sure they won’t brick her up.
McNulty. 520-odd appearances (plus the amateur ones for Burscough), 430 of them at Conference level or lower. Legend in his own level. When Tranmere came back up two years ago they played better without him. Bit like Carragher for Liverpool in a way: a legend while you have him for two decades, but you play better football more or less from the moment he retires.
Vaughan,though: what a miss! He was already celebrating landing my Asian-1 bet for me. Had a fiver on him to score anytime too, plus a double with the lad who got two for Wolfsburg last night so I was mighty vexed.
28 November 2020
BOBBY SVARC
Come on Marine.
28 November 2020
WARDEN HODGES
paid 5/1 as well. happy days.
29 November 2020
WARDEN HODGES
So is there a 6.66% chance of a Merseyside derby of sorts in FAC3?
29 November 2020
EXXO
I make it there’s a 4.76% chance of each Merseyside club having a derby (3 in 63), or of course 6.35% if you include the most Merseyside club of all – in quizzes at least – Stockport County.
I do those kinds of simple probability calculations every day as a gambler, but it would need somebody with more patience than me to do the maths on the overall chances of there being any Merseyside derby – would love to see the workings of anyone who can (where’s Pete Ridges when you need him?)
30 November 2020
Chris The Siteowner
I just spent far too long on this. Someone put me out of my misery.
30 November 2020
WARDEN HODGES
Remember Alan Jackson of ‘Jacko ‘ fame coming up with the Stockport/River Mersey line. Anyway, here’s to all non league clubs remaining getting tasty draws later.
Come on you Crosby gold/blacks!!
30 November 2020
EXXO
about 1 in 1281 is about 00.0077% in fact 😉
30 November 2020
Schoon
Are you trying to calculate probability of one or more pairings of 4 particular teams, chosen from 64? Ie 4C2/64C2? =6/2016=3/1008.
30 November 2020
EXXO
Thanks Schoon, simpler than I thought, much appreciated.
Wonderful draw for the Mariners. Hope nothing will prevent them having a good crowd of loyal followers, and a day to remember.
Looks like Boreham Wood v. Millwall will be the Biscuit Derby in the 3rd round.
30 November 2020
WARDEN HODGES
Cheers Exxo.
Stepladder and a garden on Rossett Road L23 required!
30 November 2020
EXXO
Schoon. Sorry, just realised that your calculations are correct, but that 6 in 2016 is the probablity that any one of the random possibilities would be a Merseyside derby. If the 64 clubs all played each other once (not home and away) there would be a league with 2016 games, only 6 of which would be Merseyside derbies.
However, we are calculating the probability that there would be a Merseyside derby (100% if there are 2016 different matches). This has to be greater than 4.76% by the simple sum that I posted earlier.
30 November 2020
EXXO
Could the probability in fact have been about 6 out of 63, ie about 9.5 % ?
If you played a 64-team ‘league’, just playing each oppo once (not home & away), that’s 2016 games QED, so there would have to be 63 Saturdays of 32 games, and the Merseyside derbies would happen, on average, on just less than 6 of those Saturdays – though there would actually be many billions of billions of combinations of what fixtures happened when.
9.5% also happens to be double the chances of any one team of the 4 getting a Merseyside derby, and I instinctively like that.
1 December 2020
EXXO
Doh, yes, it was way simpler than we thought and was staring us in the face about ten comments ago. I can sleep now.
Each Merseyside team had a 3 in 63 chance of a derby. Each of them would feature in 50% of possible derbies, therefore 4.76% x 2 = 9.52%.
1 December 2020
EXXO
Or (says my face at the window on waking) multiply Schoon’s probability of any one tie being a Merseyside derby by the number of ties, ie 3/1008 times 32, again equalling 9.52%
1 December 2020
Chris The Siteowner
A mathematically-minded friend of mine agrees with Schoon’s answer. He says: “I think the way to look at this is to imagine the draw as a necklace, with the balls strung out in a line. There would be 4 black balls dispersed somehow amongst a population of 60 white balls.
“Firstly, how many ways are there of distributing any two balls in 64? I think that is 64 x 63 – (i.e. 64!/62!). If you don’t care about the order in which the balls come out – that is, ball 32 followed by ball 26 is the same as ball 26 followed by ball 32, then it is half that. As we are only interested in whether they are black or white, the number of ways is (64 x 63)/2, which is 2016.
“You are interested in the probability at the start, not at various points in the progression of the draw. Obviously, the probability would change as the draw progresses (say two white balls are drawn first, the chance of two blacks would go up a bit; if a white and a black came out, it would go down). But here, I think you can imagine that your necklace has a predetermined sequence (even though it hasn’t really because it depends on how the person drawing the balls relates to them!).
“So, we need to calculate how many of those ways feature two blacks. Well, there are 4 blacks, so the number of ways of drawing 2 blacks is (4 x 3), which is 12, and again because we don’t care which blacks they are or the order they come out in, we halve it to 6, or (4!/2!).
“The answer is therefore 6/(64 x 63 x 0.5) , which is 1 in 336. Or 3 in 1008 (0.298%), as suggested.”
1 December 2020
Excavating Rita
Fascinating stuff but isn’t this just the probability of drawing two blacks one after the other?
It wouldn’t result in a tie if the first black came out as the away team. The first black has to be an odd number in the draw (ie the home team) followed by another black.
Or am i overthinking this?
2 December 2020
EXXO
That’s still the probability that any given tie of the 32 will be a Merseyside derby, not that there will be any Merseyside derby. So your mate has forgotten to multiply by the 32 times the chance occurs.
Even if only Liverpool and Everton are in the hat, there’s still a one in 63 chance of a Merseyside derby, ie 1.587% (so it will have happened about once in our lifetimes in the 3rd round, which happened to be in 2020).
Multiply that by the 6 possibilities for a Merseyside derby this time (home/away being irrelevant) and once again we get 9.52%
2 December 2020
EXXO
One easy he formula for a draw of 64 would always be
(Size of the sub-group minus one over 63 ) x the proportion of potential derbies that team would be in, expressed as “decimal odds” (ie 100/the%)
So for a Premier league London derby (6 clubs in the hat) the probability for any given club is 5/63 = 7.93% and each club is involved in 33.33% of potential London derbies so multiply by 100/33.33 = x 3 = a 23.79% chance of a Premier league London derby, higher than you would think eh?
2 December 2020
EXXO
So your sub-group only needs to be 9 out of 64 before there is a well over 50% chance of two of them being drawn together. Maybe next time, Warden, Marine will be in the draw with Everton, Liverpool, Tranmere, Southport, AFC Liverpool, City of Liverpool FC, Prescot Cables … and get the plum tie at Cammel Laird.
It’s a bit like the old classroom thing where as soon as there’s 24 kids in the room the teacher can bet that two of them have the same birthday (as long as classes aren’t selected according to birthdays, which one class I was in was).
2 December 2020
Bobby Svarc
Has Warden Hodges topped his self?
2 December 2020
EXXO
Doubt it. Unless, before the draw, he put his house on Marine reaching the 4th round, but some maths teachers definitely would have topped themselves if they’d seen this thread.
2 December 2020
WARDEN HODGES
Nope, I’m still here! Seeing them names makes me wonder will there be a Liverpool Senior Cup this season? I honestly don’t know.
3 December 2020
WARDEN HODGES
Fans have been told attending next weeks FA Trophy game v Hyde United will not aid their chances of getting in for the THFC game. Damn!
Priority vouchers, them were the days….
3 December 2020
EXXO
@Warden. Last night I watched the first half of the Spurs game on a Brazilian stream and the second half in Dutch (not though choice but you just take what you get sometimes), and both mentioned Marine FC from the 8th tier (though I couldn’t understand what else they said). What was it the players were singing in Havant the other night about being famous? Musical talent was not much in evidence and I couldn’t catch what tune it was.
4 December 2020
EXXO
Well I don’t need to look up the stats to know that’s the first time Tranmere and Liverpool have ever won away on the same day by an aggregate of 10-0, or anything like it. Yippety doo.
19 December 2020
EXXO
Those looking for a decent bet for tonight’s big televised FA Cup game should surely go against the ten times winners and back Mr. Blackwell’s favourite Scottish team in the clash of the Queens. Queen of the South beat Queen’s Park 3-1 at Hampden in the league cup just 8 weeks ago and I expect something like a repeat performance tonight.
Although two divisions above the Spiders and having played a lot more competitive football recently, the Doonhamers are available at a generous 1.87 draw-no-bet.
8 January 2021
EXXO
Forgot to give the Exford Formula (comment 288 above) a run-out yesterday, to calculate that the odds of a 5th round tie between two Biscuit teams was (5 minus one over 31) x (100 over 40), ie about a 32% probability. Anyway it came to pass with Chelsea v. Luton, but no such calculations needed for the next round unfortunately.
12 January 2021
EXXO
Skybet paying 1/5 odds for 5 places out of 12 runners for the 4-mile slog round Newcastle at 3.15, probably ‘cos they reckon 5 out of 12 won’t finish, but anyway as a result Crossley Tender is among those with a good engine offering some potential e/w value.
(I’m on Salty Boy and Haul Us In as well, given the offer).
27 February 2021
EXXO
They’ll be dancing in the streets of Redcar this afternoon if the EBR double comes in: I got Boardman (2.50) in a scheme with Oliver, who hopefully won’t be taken to school in the 3.58.
*Biscuitistas are reminded that a classic biscuit bet – a true “Equine Biscuit Reference” – is when a biscuit-named horse runs at a biscuit-named track. These notifications began nearly 2 decades ago with attempts to back a pulled-up at Banger-on-Dee and should not be taken as “tips”.
5 April 2021
EXXO
I’ve picked out Gherkin in the 5.20 at Bath
12 May 2021
EXXO
Ah well it’s just a Mental Health Awareness Week Handicap, nobody cares.
12 May 2021
EXXO
Baddiel, Zola, Numanoids, Mr. McGee… can you hear me Mr. McGee? Your boys took a helluva beating.
Really happy for you MIck! FA cup winners at long last!
15 May 2021
EXXO
I was just saying on the ‘Temporary Fans’ group that Nigel will be surely be fine with the social distancing when he goes back to the match tonight for the first time in 2021. Thursday night and the gates are low. L’enfer c’est les autres. Have you noticed since the return of fans this week just how horrible some of them sound? As opposed to the low drone of the fake crowd noise we now get almost no singing and when the attendance is ten per cent or less it seems to be all the negative ones, the really hostile ones that go just to be really nasty to people, who form the hardcore of the hardcore who get allocated the few tickets. Millwall last December obviously the extreme example of that, but plenty of evidence at various Prem games this week. That Chelsea oaf who was abusing Tielemans as he took corners on Tuesday. The Burnley idiots who were booing the opposition non-stop, rather than supporting their team last night. If I want catharsis and if I want atmosphere expansion, I go to my local tabernacle and I SING!!
Anyway, one firm (Genting Bet) has Morecambe at a stand-out EVENS to qualify for Wembley after two legs, and this seems like fab value as Tranmere haven’t played any decent football in the last two months. OK, they sacked their horrible oaf of a manger before the play-offs, but can’t see that sparking much of a revival.
Talking of which, plenty of rumours of Hartlepool manager Dave Challinor being seen buying energy drinks in Leasowe. He’s from Great Sutton I believe, @Peter Ornithologist, so I hope that’s not an omen for Sunday and that Hartlepool will somehow make it back up.
20 May 2021
EXXO
Well I take some of that back – Rovers playing well here in the first 15 mins. Although it’s kind of weird to see Tranmere without cardboard Mancs (Gubbas), the supporters appear to be having an effect so far. And although Tranmere don’t really sing, there’s chanting (rather than negativity).
20 May 2021
peter mcornithologis
Thanks for that Exxo. Promotion would lessen the pain of having a Tory M.P. Good luck tonight. Any idea where the Gubbas have gone?
20 May 2021
EXXO
Tranmere’s training ground is what used to be my middle school footy pitches and I like to think they now use the sandy-coloured clowns as a wall for free kick practice.
20 May 2021
EXXO
Tonight is the only chance a few socially-distanced Tranmere season ticket holders may ever get to go back 30 years to what used to be the home end on the right, the Cowsheds, as modelled by our very own Bobby Svarc, but is now the away end.
20 May 2021
EXXO
Once again the mysterious absence of ‘Torquay’ from the A-Z is noted. Would they be rivalling Stranraer if they did indeed maintain such a presence?
13 June 2021
peter mcornithologist
Thank you so much Exo. Ironic that a first ever Wembley visit has been thwarted by them pesky Euros .
13 June 2021
Chris The Siteowner
Sorry about Torquay, you should have reminded me before. Let’s get them off the bottom of the table with a couple of well-placed comments, shall we?
14 June 2021
EXXO
I’m actually dreading going to sleep tonight because the last couple of nights Brendan Rodgers has started playing cameo roles in my dreams. Last night I was introduced to him at some point during a festive trek, and offered to buy him a pint but was humiliated to discover that I had left my wallet up a mountain. So I offered him one of the four pack in my bag and then I realised I’d left those cans at a party somewhere else up a mountain. And that was just the sub-plot. Meanwhile Mrs Exford was probably going to prison but every time someone tried to whisper why, I realised I was rapidly getting deafer.
Rodgers out!
18 October 2021
EXXO
IN ECSTASY has hopes and some interesting late money in this first race at Dundalk, and hopefully won’t bring the Lucky 15 crashing to the floor …
19 November 2021
EXXO
A very nice start to the weekend. With the Betfred offer that gives me minimum 140% profit on the Lucky 15 after one race out of 4. I could only find two other EBRs, Punk Poet 17.00 and Malaysian (Jelutong) 17.30 – the latter was placed for me last week, so I made up the L15 with Independent Expert 16.30
19 November 2021
Ferencváros fan
Dossy day binge-watching telly lined up for tomorrow, what with the weather forecast, and also as a precaution in case there is a reaction to the jab. Unlike today I will have a bit of a play on the racecards to add a bit of interest to the day, and, given the band’s location tonight, the 9/1 on offer for Mr Scrumpy (e/w) in the 1:22 at Bangor-on-Dee has proved irresistible.
26 November 2021
Ferencváros fan
Since I’ll be in the glorious county of Shropshire (OK narrow it down, Loggerheads) at post time, I will have to have an each way dabble on The Wrekin in the 3:35 at Chelters. See you all tomorrow, those of you who will be there.
9 December 2021
INJURED BUZZARD
@F.F. Will be having a punt on my 1st 100/1 winner, Samuel Jackson, in the 1.30 at Bangor-on-Dee. Just hope he isn’t pulled up…
9 December 2021
POP-TART MARK
Well Svarco got his wish with more racecourses. Chepstow is now an official EBR (Equine Biscuit Reference) course, and although there are no real EBRs on its first day carrying this honour, it was personally satisfying to see the first winner today was called Marco’s Island.
Might have a little e/w go on Nessfield Blue in the 16.00, as there’s a hint of Oblong of Dreams in the name (see Taylo’s comment above).
Ludlow makes its debut as an EBR course on Wednesday.
Incidentally, not many of you will be aware that Leasowe has a significant role in early British aristocratic racing history – the origins of “the derby” were on Leasowe beach by Lord Derby’s summer pleasure palace.
26 February 2022
Chris The Siteowner
As pointed out by Idiot Saul in the new album comments, Lock Down Luke runs in the 1405 at Newcastle on Tuesday 8 March. Shame it’s not a PBR course too.
4 March 2022
BOBBY SVARC
Not exactly a runner,…….I’m talking 5 day decs
4 March 2022
EXXO
Apologies for not notifying you of the first ever EBR runner at Ludlow yesterday, where odds-on favourite KARL Phillipe won the 2pm despite rider losing an iron after jumping the last.
4 March 2022
IDIOT SAUL
Too many horses were looking to compete in Newcastle’s novice handicap hurdle, so the race has been split into two divisions with Lock Down Luke now due to run in Division 2 at 14:40. He shouldn’t lack assistance from the saddle as champion jockey-elect Brian Hughes is booked for the ride.
6 March 2022
IDIOT SAUL
Finished 4th. Fortunately my bookie was paying out each way on the first four.
8 March 2022
POP_TART MARK
Showtime! It’s Showtime Baby just romped home in the first race at Dundalk for a good start to an EBR double with Persian Wolf in the last (8.20). It would be rude not to have also nibbled treble with Golden Lyric (6.50).
1 April 2022
EXXO
On this day in 1981 my 80–y-o grandad who was at the Roodee in May every year for about 35 years saw Shergar win the Chester Vase, cycled home from Wallasey Grove Road station and then, after popping in for a quick drink with the widow next door, dropped dead (she heard the thud through the wall). Decent way to go according to all concerned.
He would not approve of picking a horse on the name of course, but it’s a triple EBR: Dee Stakes, Chester, 2.40 CRESTA – what the fuck were we backing?
5 May 2022
EXXO
Ooh, clearly best animal in the race but not a clue how to settle or race. Hood didn’t work. Looks like a trainer’s nightmare.
But profit on the e/w 🙂
5 May 2022
Ferencváros fan
Boardman in the 1:30pm at Chester tomorrow, currently trading at 4-1/7/2. Can’t remember the last time I backed a horse at such a short price, so it’s not for me, but he could well win and should certainly place.
5 May 2022
EXXO
The current 5/1 for Boardman looks fair, or with Skybet 9/2 and money back (as cash not free bet) if he’s second or third.
For the second day in a row, there’s an at least tenuous EBR (Equine Biscuit Reference) pick in the first 4 races at Chester, so I’ll have another “Grandad Thornton memorial Lucky 15” bet (with Betfred ‘cos of their L15 offer). Yesterday it was Look out Louis in the first race 1.30 that was the only winner of the four, so hopefully that’s a good omen for Boardman in today’s 1.30.
1.30 Boardman (‘Every Time a Bell Rings’)
2.05 Lord Protector (AKA Cromwell – ‘Gok Wan Acolytes’)
2.40 Megallan (Auntie Meg from Restless Legs and Uncle Allan from ‘FET’ – together at last)
3.15 Coltrane (‘Irk the Purists’)
6 May 2022
Lux inferior
Beat me to it with the Coltrane mention…already on the Boardman/Coltrane double at a juicy 38/1.
6 May 2022
Ferencváros fan
Good luck to any fellow punters with your picks today. All those EBR mentioned look like they are in with a shout. Quiet day for me. Got an interest in the 3:15, but, apart from that, I’ll only be watching.
6 May 2022
EXXO
Boardman didn’t know what was going on being pushed that far wide on the bend. Finished well in the end but could well have won that race in a smaller field.
Lord Protector another fine illustration of how not to plot a course at Chester. Probably ran a couple of hundred yards further than the winner.
6 May 2022
EXXO
I’m guessing Grand Visir or It’s Good to Laugh? Anyway you’ve made me look for something at a higher price that looks well weighted and prepped for this, so I’ve nibbled both of those e/w.
6 May 2022
Ferencváros fan
Actually think Boardman was the best horse in the race but from the lane draw onwards nothing went his way. I’ve already put him into my tracker for nto. Lord Protector ran so wide that at times he was practically in a different postcode area to the rest of the field. Megallen ran like he just didn’t want to be there. The 3:15 should be fun and, with apologies to all for straying from Biscuitry, my e/w pick is The Grand Visir. Looking for an angle as usual. Awkward Sean.
6 May 2022
EXXO
Boardman does the business at Chester (3.45pm) and now we need Dee Star (Cartmel, 5.39pm) for the 13/1 EBR double.
28 May 2022
Lux inferior
Speculative EBR Yankee today (though not at EBR racecourses):
Grocer Jack – 13:50 Newbury
Yosemite Valley – 14:03 Curragh
Bass Player – 14:51 Newmarket
Equilateral – 15:10 Curragh
16 July 2022
Ferencváros fan
Some good spots there, @Lux. Hope you did some each way punting.
16 July 2022
Hendrix-tattoo
Bet Fred are offering 66/1 double of Manchester United and Ryan Giggs going down this season…
14 August 2022
EXXO
The money seems to indicate that Uffington should be in the first two at Chepstow 3pm.
Evens for a first two finish, still some 5/2 available to win.
8 September 2022
Chris The Siteowner
Of course I chose the win. 🙁
8 September 2022
EXXO
Second (with a little RFC).
ooh Rhubarb in the 5pm Chepstow. Let’s go!
8 September 2022
EXXO
The victory for the same trainer & jockey with Promoter in the 3.35 is a good omen for Rhubarb in the 4.45 in fact. Still some 3/1 available, with evens again for the top two finish (exchange prices).
8 September 2022
EXXO
Ignore that. Different trainer & jockey but is definitely value at 3/1.
8 September 2022
EXXO
Glad I got some punting in yesterday while I could. One of my two winners in a ‘Lucky 15’ beat HM’s final ever runner by a nose. Liverpool will get the rest they badly need, so hopefully I’ll stop making so much money out of their recent entirely predictable bad patch. It was ridiculous how much some small free bet doubles on Napoli win & Wolves win/Napoli win and Wolves draw was going to make me.
9 September 2022
Exxo
Pearson in!!!!!!
17 September 2022
BOBBY SVARC
OBLONG SONG Windsor 2.50
10 October 2022
EXXO
I’ve made a note to look out for her when she’s back down to 1m½f, and carrying about 6 pounds less. And maybe dropping in grade :-D. Talking of which, hope you got on another ‘Oblong’ reference just now – Sea Speedwell – that’s just won the 3.30 at the end of the A47
10 October 2022
IDIOT SAUL
Lock Down Luke won at Kelso this afternoon, to get himself back in the spotlight.
22 October 2022
POP-TART MARK
Paradise Lost went of at 4/6 and lost at Fairyhouse just now, which was nice.
8 February 2023
POP-TART MARK
If you hear a maiden grieving upon the midnight air, from somewhere over there, it hopefully won’t be MAID OF THE NIGHT who goes at Hereford 3.35pm, and should finish either 1st at 7/4, or if not then second to Masked Matgil (and you’ll get at least 4/1 for that forecast).
Provided we’re not grieving after that, the Edge says we could maybe buy on with PRO BONO (Dundalk 4pm), some 5/1 available. Don’t take less than 4/1.
15 February 2023
Ninkasi
Just listened to racing tips and Lockdown Luke is tipped to win today. He is a 7 year old horse apparently.
https://www.skysports.com/racing/form-profiles/horse/1119037/lock-down-luke
17 February 2023
Surly git
Yes…There I was jenticulating (breaking the fast..) at 6.30 this morning listening to Radio 4 sports headlines and the daily racing tips were announced….Lockdown Luke got a shout I believe he was running at Kelso not sure what time I was so suprised the finer details eluded me. Looking forward to Awkward Sean running in the 3.15 at Kempton Park tomorrow….
17 February 2023
EXXO
Think he was second the last time that R4 Today tipped him too. They have a 12% loss rate on total stakes. Unlike Luke himself who is over 80% up at S/P on level stakes (largely thanks to his 22/1 debut win in 2020)
17 February 2023
FERENCVáROS FAN
The Wrekin may well start as favourite in the last at Ludlow today…
22 February 2023
EXXO
I couldn’t back him at the price against a Skelton h/c debutant that’s being heavily backed. Was a decent prospect a couple of years back, less so recently. But as he only resides three minutes from the track at Ludlow, where he won in 2021, and good ground today, he might have more stamina in the tank. When they scratched him from the last meet there a fortnight ago, I was kind of hoping he’d ended up in Chepstow next.
22 February 2023
EXXO
Couple more Wrekin facts, of varying degrees of relevance, plus some speculation.
1. It’s likely that many of the horses in the race will be running with bridles containing components manufactured by The Wrekin’s owners’ company, Barnwell sealants. This sideline seems to have emerged from the company owner’s interest in racing.
2. However, the main man died last year and his wife and sons have kept this, their only horse, in training … one would guess this is for largely sentimental, and local, reasons.
22 February 2023
EXXO
Thanks for making me look at the card, George. A profitable afternoon, and (just so it’s not total aftertiming) the favourite in the last here can complete a nice little trixie of favourites for me…
Since I’ve had a good week (punting-wise, at least) I’ll do small forecasts too of Risk-Stonific and Risk-Heros.
Hope the Wrekin doesn’t empty his glass half-way but I think he might.
22 February 2023
Ferencváros fan
Pleased to hear you’ve had a good punting day, @Exxo. Having pointed out the PBR, I actually kept my powder dry today, what with Cheltenham starting to loom. It’ll take something to jump out of the page between now and then to tempt me. The Wrekin clearly found himself in a trappy race, despite the small field. Well done to anyone who worked it out.
22 February 2023
EXXO
A decent punting day, but it’s always a good (punting) week for me when the odds on Liverpool were wrong, and sometimes I think the odds on Liverpool are thing I know most about in the world… (other times I think it’s HMHB or Wirral local history).
Yeah, the Mullins-ham festival is looming already, and this year it’s special … ‘cos I won’t be working and only one of the festival days is also one of the final days of the river fishing season (most years I’m really torn between the two, as the coarse fishing season always ends with me feeling like I haven’t done enough fishing lately but this year I’ll have been fishing for 2 weeks solid before Cheltenham starts).
22 February 2023
Lux inferior
Been wondering whether there might be the possibility of making a few quid at Cheltenham from any EBRs. Best I can come up with is the following double:
13:30 Thursday – Mighty Potter. I’d be all over Banbridge in this race on decent ground, but the more it rains, the more I think Potter will succeed.
14:10 Friday – Filey Bay. Well handicapped, but not convinced it would want the weather to come on all torrential.
13 March 2023
Exxo
@ Lux
Been a bit off colour and am out fishing today so i’ve not even started reading my 100-page Mark Howard Cheltenham preview yet, that i paid a tenner for.
But BENSON will certainly be receiving a few quid each way.
13 March 2023
Lux inferior
Ah yes. Benson is a very fair each way price. Still declared on Wednesday and Friday, but almost certain to run in the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Won’t mind the rain one bit, and will be going for a £100k bonus after winning at Kelso the other day.
He won’t be lost in a bog
And he might win a hundred thousand pounds…
13 March 2023
Ferencváros fan
Cheltenham hasn’t gone to plan for me either. Had tix for a pre-Cheltenham night at Warwick last Thurs but couldn’t make it because of the bad weather. It does feel a bit like cribbing someone else’s homework, but I’ve been twice in the past and it’s paid dividends. Will have to rely on my own efforts this year then. In any case I wonder but I doubt if last Thursday’s panel members were scanning the cards for PBRs. Will certainly have a good look, to see if I can add to what has already been spotted, particularly on gig day.
13 March 2023
BOBBY SVARC
My first Cheltenham for 48 years when I won’t have a bet. Losing my betting guru back in September is still too raw. Anyway, my old man would be doing all the favs at Sedgefield, 21 win doubles and a roll up, he perhaps is.
14 March 2023
EXXO
Bad day for fav’s at Sedgefield so far Mick.
This 2.50 race now has all kinds of 4 Lads who shook the winning post potential
Jonjo O’NEILL
NIGEL Twiston-Davies (assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn)
KARL Phillipe
14 March 2023
Injured Buzzard
Teahupoo in the stayers on Thursday is my bet of meeting. Therefore I advise everyone to lay it…
14 March 2023
Ferencváros fan
American MIKE in the first at Cheltenham is pretty friendless but if he reproduces his best form rather than his more recent form he might just be in with a bit of a squeak.
15 March 2023
Ferencváros fan
Spotted a PBR Barney Rubble on Friday’s Cheltenham card.
FILEY Bay is currently at the top of the betting in the second. In the next race MONTYS Star is as low as 10/1 and as high as 20/1, depending on the bookmaker. They both could be the real deal, but large fields in both races, so just a small each way play to add a bit more spice to the afternoon in Lembo.
15 March 2023
Injured buzzard
Vandemere in the 3.10 at Hexham. In your diary write it down.
16 March 2023
EXXO
1,2,3,4, John the Baptist is a horse, who doesn”t really know the score and who sets out for Ludlow at 2.25 butmay well end up Chepstow.
Meanwhile better chances go at Chepstow
3.10 Checkitout should merit a single, surely, but can Dock Road beat him? Yes he can lad, so I’m having the reverse forecast.
3.45 Weaver’s Arms is not devoid of tenners.
5.25Edmondmay make things bearable, if Edmond likes the ground.
23 March 2023
BOBBY SVARC
Bert Wilson…Anchorman
23 March 2023