And then there were (about to be) two…
| % | % | Votes | ||||
| 1 | The Light at the End of the Tunnel | 57 | v | 43 | 24-Hour Garage People | 871 |
| 2 | National Shite Day | 55 | v | 45 | Everything’s AOR | 861 |
See the (now closed) chat for the completed tie: Match 1 • Match 2
Losers have taken their place in the updated table for the Baguette Dilemma round.
Voting in the Final follows soon.
Two fat feet
(sniff)
19 December 2015
Chris The Siteowner
“Light to make the final with 54%”, you said, TFF. Not bad.
19 December 2015
Two fat feet
And my prediction formula (ha, you thought I was just guessing?) says it’ll win the final unless its opponent records at least 65% in the other semi. Don’t ask me to explain it unless you’re having trouble getting to sleep.
19 December 2015
Nagasaki shinpads
OK. ……ìnsomnia calling
19 December 2015
Two fat feet
Okayyyyy, well hedging my bets in case you’re just humouring me, the short version is that it uses previous performance (starting with 2011 where applicable) and is revised after each round taking into account performance against expectation.
Or, if there’s not enough to go on, I just went with gut feeling with, admittedly, about the same level of success. While it’s not actually been any more successful in predicting actual winners than if I’d just tossed a coin, the actual score prediction has averaged about 6% out, and been spot on twice – although I’ve also been exactly right on two occasions where I had to guess.
Anyone else noticed that none of the songs that were in the finals for the first time beat one that was in the 2011 tournament?
19 December 2015
EXXO
hmm, still a reasonable chance of 4 black pegs for guessing the position of the semi-finalists in the Baguette dilemna?
Based mainly on last 32 results and Baguette skip percentages I went:
1. The Light
2. R& R is Full of BW
3. NSD
4. JDOG
5. T. Riots
6. AOR
7. 24HGP
19 December 2015
EXXO
Seems like your formula isn’t really taking into account the strength of the oppo, 2FF. Light has had stunning victories and scored a lot of goals but 24HGP was the first top 10 song it has faced. And if ‘Light’ does turn out to be the song that’s way out top of the ‘Baguette’, that may well be because it wasn’t seen as an obvious ‘nailed on cert’ by tactical voters who were trying to get their faves into the 32, though we’ll never know about that for certain I guess. Either way I make it second favourite for the cup at the mo.
19 December 2015
Two fat feet
@exxo – it does, but it’s too complicated to explain, you really would be asleep before I was halfway through.
Okay I lost the post just as I was finishing it and can’t be arsed to do it again.
19 December 2015
Jeff Dreadnought
My predictions (also based largely on previous performance) are looking somewhat woeful, but there is still a chance of three correct placings (1st, 3rd and 6th). I now suspect that’ll be two black pegs and one white peg rather than three white ones.
1. NSD
2. Wools
3. AOR
4. Chatteris
5. 24h GP
6. Light … Tunnel
7. Bob
19 December 2015
Schoon
1. National Shite Day
The Trumpton Riots
Bob Wilson – Anchorman
For What Is Chatteris…
Joy Division Oven Gloves
Country Practice
7. All I Want For Christmas Is A Dukla Prague Away Kit
A rather excellent none right so far.
19 December 2015
Paddy ShennAN
OK, so who’s the impertinent imposter writing Lux Familiar Cup previews in my name? And more importantly, how come Floreat Inertia isn’t in the final? You give people democracy…
19 December 2015
Chris The Siteowner
Yeah, come on Impertinent Imposter, own up.
19 December 2015
GOK WAN ACOLYTE
The Impertinent Imposter? That was one of Elvis Costello’s pseudonyms, wasn’t it?
19 December 2015
EXXO
So was Elvis Costello. How good was he on ‘Book of the Week’ last month by the way?
19 December 2015
EXXO
It could have been another Paddy Shennan, couldn’t it? Or maybe you’re not the real one anyway?
But as it happens, yes it was me. And I’m just a diminutive form of another pseudonym anyway, so we’re none the wiser.
A big fan of your work though Paddy – imitation, flattery, etc.
Won’t do it again, sir, honest.
19 December 2015
Paul f
I got the audio version of Costello’s book – highly recommended. And as I mentioned previously it includes a nice mention of Geoff.
19 December 2015
Stringy bob
Well this is all going horribly wrong. If NSD doesn’t win this competition I will boycott the 2019 revision
19 December 2015
TWO FAT FEET
Get innnn!!!!! A Light-Shite final. NSD gets my vote, but the computer says Light to take the trophy with 53%.
20 December 2015
Martin a
Light at the End of the Tunnel and AOR are my two favourite HMHB songs, so I had genuine hope of them contesting the final. The consolation is the final is an easier decision and I won’t have to be a half-scarf wanker.
20 December 2015
Chris The Siteowner
And it’s 1 vs 3 from the Baguette Dilemma Round in the final. It’s been surprising to me just how well the Baguette Dilemma Round predicted the knockout ties – no.6 beating no.2 was one of the few upsets. Maybe we should have just run the competition as a league in the first place.
20 December 2015
Dickhead in quicksand
Spoilsport.
20 December 2015
Hazelsound
Hmm, had Light pegged at 6. Makes things tighter than I expected. Stupidly nervous checking today’s result. Also feeling pangs of loss. What will I do without the LFC?
20 December 2015
jitsu_g
What convoluted system are you going to use to do the draw for the final?
20 December 2015
Chris The Siteowner
What… to see who gets the home dressing room? Hmm, let’s see, we need something quick, ‘cos I want to kick this off today.
Oh, excellent – SC Cambuur from Leeuwarden are playing in a minute. Odd number of total goals, Shite gets the joy of the home dressing room, even number (includes zero), Light gets it.
Let’s go.
20 December 2015
Schoon
Exciting final pairing from what has been a great cup. However IMO it’s highlighted the fact that HMHB’s back catalogue tails off alarmingly in quality. Look at the baguette round; knock off the first 189 songs and it gets decidedly ropey.
20 December 2015
Dickhead in quicksand
Let’s go – to the Met Bar, to the Groucho, to chapel?
20 December 2015
Jeff Dreadnought
It’s riveting stuff. The Shower of Shite are hoping that the boys from Leeuwarden can hang on to their slender lead.
20 December 2015
Jeff Dreadnought
SBV Excelsior 1, SC Cambuur 4
NSD gets the dressing room with the high-tech tactics board.
20 December 2015
Two fat feet
Light gets the one with the wobbly physio table in the middle of the room, not enough programmes and the cracked teapot.
20 December 2015
Dickhead in quicksand
4-1? Joy in Leeuwarden, for sure!
NSD also get the masseuses with various scented lotions, oils and greases.
TLATEOTT also get the flickering light fitting with rusty water dripping from it.
20 December 2015
featureless tv producer steve
TLATEOTT has no basis for complaint. Their room has just been freshly repainted.
20 December 2015
Beltane beard
Oh well, AOR will have to concentrate on the league now. Gutted it’s out.
20 December 2015
Sera69
Riveting competition, Chris. Will leave a hole in my listening too. Very happy AOR ran Shite so close. Bungs in brown envelopes involved in that win I’m sure!
21 December 2015