VOTING IS NOW CLOSED. See the results.
Time for the Quarter-Finals! We had another HMHB-lyrics-quoted sporting event (the Ryder Cup) about to happen, so it seemed appropriate to base The 8 Christening Invites Round draw on that. Here’s how it worked, and here’s the draw:
The Draw
| We Built This Village On A Trad. Arr. Tune | v | Every Time a Bell Rings |
| Everything’s AOR | v | When The Evening Sun Goes Down |
| All I Want For Christmas Is A Dukla Prague Away Kit | v | Joy Division Oven Gloves |
| The Light at the End of the Tunnel (is the Light of an Oncoming Train) | v | Oblong of Dreams |
Chris The Siteowner
That was nice timing by the Ryder Cup. We’d have had more difficulty using the results of WOMAD or V.
25 September 2023
Two fat feet
As mentioned elsewhere, Oblong remains the narrow favourite based on my data, but Light has closed the gap. If they were drawn together it would be 51-49. Evening Sun is the outsider by some distance.
25 September 2023
Lux inferior
@CtSO – loving the overly complex nature of the draw procedures, but I’ve just read that the opening session of the Ryder Cup will be foursomes rather than fourballs. Not sure if that changes your thinking, or whether you’ll just go with the teeing off order from the afternoon fourballs.
27 September 2023
professor Abelazar Woozle
I’ll be well chuffed if OoD does bag the trophy this time round, having predicted it to happen 18 months ago! (See post 517 on the album discussion thread)
27 September 2023
Chris The Siteowner
@Lux – D’oh! Of course it is. I’ll take the morning session still, but just match the players with the songs in the order the pairings are announced.
27 September 2023
Lux inferior
@CtSO: Apologies for my picky pedantry, but I believe Sepp Straka played the opening European tee shot in the third of yesterday morning’s foursomes matches, so in the LFC ‘23 QF draw, Straka should be representing Oblong, with Shane Lowry representing TLATEOTT. Hopefully spotted early enough to avoid any controversy.
Just as well in this instance that I didn’t stop analysing Straka.
30 September 2023
Chris The Siteowner
Nice pedantry Lux, and quite correct. My error in the terminology – I meant the order in which they were announced, but I wrote the order in which they tee off, so that’s what it has to be. Corrected. As you say, well before it matters.
30 September 2023
Mr Galbraith
Ryder Cup result now all but done and dusted, however the possibility of an Oblong v Light quarter final looks ever more likely, which would be a shame.
30 September 2023
Chris The Siteowner
I fear you’re right Mr G, the chances of avoiding that unwanted battle now look minimal.
1 October 2023
Chris The Siteowner
Wait! Shane Lowry could still change everything. Never has so much depended on someone who’ll care so little (given that his team has already won)…
1 October 2023
Chris The Siteowner
…but no, he missed the putt. Perhaps someone would check my working!
1 October 2023
Lux inferior
Spot on, Chris, so far as I can see. What a Ryder Cup that was.
1 October 2023
Rhombus of Nightmares
First tie looks tight – the other three have clear winners, in my opinion.
1 October 2023
two fat feet
My 95% accurate predictions then :
ETABR 54%
AOR 70%
JDOG 59%
Oblong 51%
1 October 2023
Bad loser
Tie 1 – I can’t vote in this one. I imagine it’s like choosing the favourite of your children.
Ties 2 & 3 are simple choices.
Tie 4 is another brutal match up but I do know how I’ll be casting my vote.
1 October 2023
I’M the talentless nigel
I knew this would happen eventually. I cannot decide on 2 of the ties. I will have to give this some serious thought. And then some more
2 October 2023
IRISH NIALL
I think ties 1-3 are straightforward enough* and that this is where TLATEOTT either goes home humiliated or makes a vulgar statement of intent.
Though I’m finding it hard to see past OoD overall. There will be some who perhaps prefer other songs yet simply can’t bring themselves to vote against it.
*Maybe not that straightforward. I had an urge to chuck on ETABR earlier. It is a very fine tune and Trad Arr has a game on its hands there with TFFs stats indicating seniority may be no more enough to save it now than it was for the likes of Trumpton Riots in previous rounds.
In fact the more I look at those ties the only really clear cut semi-finalist is AOR.
If that were a boxing match it’d be stopped in the first round with an ambulance summoned for Evening Sun.
2 October 2023
Lux inferior
Revised odds. This involved some serious deliberation. If I were a bookie, given the results of the previous round, it would be remiss of me not to try to tempt punters with slight odds against quotes about Oblong. I’d always kept Oblong at odds-on until now as I’d assumed it was an absolute shoo-in for overall victory, but those last 16 outcomes have caused a slight rethink. On the basis that TLATEOTT could potentially see off Oblong, I’ve seen fit to shorten AOR substantially. After all, AOR was only just beaten by TLATEOTT in a nail-biter in the 2019 quarter-finals.
Oblong 21/20
TLATEOTT 5/2
AOR 7/2
ETABR 12/1
JDOG 20/1
Trad. Arr. Tune 28/1
DPAK 66/1
Evening Sun 1000/1
2 October 2023
EXXO
Blimey. I’d have a bit of that. Winner of tie 4 wins the cup, and IMHO Oblong should be 4/5 at most, so yeah can even cover Light and still have a “Light no Bet” punt on Oblong at effective odds of 1/2.
2 October 2023
EXXO
Nearly 1/2 (decimal 1.46).
2 October 2023
Lux inferior
@Exxo – Just as well I’m not a bookie for real! The margin of victory for Oblong over Chatteris in the previous round really surprised me – I thought it would get at least 70% of the vote.
2 October 2023
EXXO
Your mis-calculation was of the [insert adjective of choice] relative popularity of the defeated song though, so that shouldn’t influence the odds now.
2 October 2023
Lux inferior
Fair point. I’m happy being a shrewd punter as opposed to a struggling bookie in real life 🙂
2 October 2023
EXXO
With any non-seeded cup competition, there’s a greater than 50% chance that the “real final” happens before the final. The chances are surprisingly high that there there are two or more “real finals” before the final, but I can’t be arsed working them out right now.
2 October 2023
MULDOON LIVES!
Please don’t get VAR involved. (Victory at Ryder)
2 October 2023
Ferencváros fan
Thanks @Lux for posting the odds. Looks like my second favourite track off the last album will have to dig deep to progress.
Hope you are still good for Wolvo. If you can’t make the Great Western, hope to catch you at the gig. Having retired from the moshpit after Shrewsbury 2021, I’m normally to be found at the front on the left wing as you face the stage, pretty well facing Karl. The club top is something of a giveaway.
3 October 2023
Two fat feet
It’s a foreign language to me so I don’t know how Lux compiles his odds, but in terms of what the order is that is possibly exactly the same as I have them in. The only immediately obvious difference to me is that I have the top two rated much closer together.
3 October 2023
Two fat feet
As for Exxo’s suggestion that the ‘real final’ usually comes earlier in the tournament, in the last two editions this has in fact been the case – if you take it as being the one which was the ultimate winner’s narrowest victory. In both cases AOR ran the eventual winner closest, but that was in the semi-final in 2015 and the QF last time out. This time round the ‘real final’ could be a photo-finish but if not, and with AOR getting an almost free pass, it could happen again …
3 October 2023
bobbybottler
@Lux
I’ll have a fiver on Evening Sun at those prices
#teameveningsun
3 October 2023
Rhombus of Nightmares
Voted. I’m expecting 3 of my 4 votes to triumph.
3 October 2023
Poopleby
Some tricky ties here. Yes, there are a couple of heavyweight ties but there are still some lightweight songs here (IMHO). As you say, Exxo, the final isn’t always between the best two; that match may well have taken place long before.
PS I’m mentioning no songs having been pooh-pooed for suggesting NSD v JDOG was a needle match.
3 October 2023
EXXO
That’s not quite what I said. I was just talking about popularity. The final will never be between the best two.
3 October 2023
Mike
Awful having to choose between ‘The light ….’ and ‘Oblong…’
3 October 2023
Lambchops
The question is which world cup is best timed for the semi final draw – cricket or rugby?
Signed a despondent Scotland fan – I can see the light at the end.of the tunnel and it looks a lot like Bundee Aki!
3 October 2023
MULDOON LIVES!
Like Dr Who. I’m with the Ood.
3 October 2023
LondonPat
Just voted. Oblong clincher was “When Robbo’s Viva overturned”. Who’d have thought I could vote against TLATE…?
3 October 2023
Injured buzzard
For me, 1,3&4 were straightforward. A dilemma on match 2 but eventually went with Evening.
3 October 2023
Johnny kwango
Match four a tough one for me, but getting goosebumps up both arms as the first clouds parted tipped me over to OOD. Didn’t really need to listen to all eight songs again, but why not, eh. Can’t wait for Friday, but it’s my only option, the T.A.R.D.I.S. I ordered still reporting as “misplaced” at Yodel’s warehouse.
3 October 2023
Cream CHEESE AND chives
I know the one I want to win but that doesn’t make it any easier. I would like my second favourite to go out at this stage; to lance the boil as it were and get it done with. If only it could concentrate on some sort of league.
4 October 2023
Lux inferior
@TFF – Generally speaking, I think we’ve been on the same page with our predictions virtually all the way through. My odds are based mostly on ‘feel’, based in turn on a misspent youth and a lifetime of gambling. I’d never cut it as an actual bookie.
@CtSO – What happens in the (admittedly unlikely) event of a tie? Will the winner be the track that placed highest in the final Baguette Dilemma Round table?
4 October 2023
Lux inferior
@FF – No worries. If I remember correctly, your initial call prior to the last 32 was an each way dabble on ETABR @ 22/1 (4 places), so you’d be looking good for a decent place return given the QF draw.
As for Wolvo, still planning to be there, although I have to negotiate a consultation with my oncologist later today as this Friday was originally scheduled as a treatment day. I don’t see any issues though, as they always emphasise that quality of life is every bit as important as quantity of life. I’ve got no idea of timings at present as my mate (a fairly recent convert who has apparently memorised the entire lyrics to ‘Gwatkin’ in the hope it gets an outing) will be driving. I will most definitely make a point of saying hello at some point during proceedings.
Re your comments on the moshpit, I have no doubt that you have a perfectly valid reason for retiring yourself, but I would urge any massive fan of the band (everyone on this forum I assume) who is physically capable to throw caution to the wind and just go for it. Don’t embrace the margins, tapping your foot and nodding quietly. Don’t flirt with the mass (and later rue it), doing a gentle bobbing up and down thing. Get in there and hurl yourself around! Some of the most joyous, life-affirming, cathartic moments I’ve experienced have been when engulfed within a moshpit. Unfortunately, my current condition means I almost certainly won’t be able to partake in Wolvo, though instinct might take over for a while. I reckon this will be the first time I’ve missed a moshpit for a band I adore since the Wedding Present at Huddersfield Poly in Jan. ’90, and that was only down to having backstage passes after a mate won them in a fanzine comp.
Apologies for waffling/preaching, and mostly in entirely the wrong thread to boot.
4 October 2023
No chi(m)ps allowed
Vote complete. Match 4 created much agonising. However, it’s just for fun🥳, isn’t it?
4 October 2023
Chris The Siteowner
400 votes in. Match 4 is currently not the closest (although it may be close enough to change still). A couple of the ties just need a reasonable amount of Game Management to see them out.
5 October 2023
Mate of the bloke
Agreed that match 4 is probably the most difficult tie of the round. Then again, at this stage there are no easy fixtures.
5 October 2023
EXXO
I’m sure we can all visualise the respective keepers clutching a cross, and stumbling unnecessarily forwards, down on their bellies with a puff of the cheeks, and staying there near the penalty spot for a few self-indulgent seconds until the ref loses patience. One of them has distinctive gloves perhaps, and another holds not only the ball up against his face, but some other sports equipment as well.
5 October 2023
No chi(m)ps allowed
@CtSO, very cryptic. 2 hard to call, one not so, and the other 50/50? @Exxo, maybe some oven gloves and a tennis racket?
5 October 2023
Two fat feet
I had Evening Sun as my ringtone for a while. Not that it’s ever been a particular favourite but on some HMHB message board or other back in the day (must have been about 2003) somebody published codes for DIY ringtones on Nokia phones for several of the songs, and that was the one I chose, either because it looked the most simple to program or it was the song I liked most out of those listed. What a time to be alive
6 October 2023
gipton teenager
Only one winner here surely? …(I MUST stop calling people “Shirley”)
8 October 2023
parsfan
One last thing to do before bed, only to find voting closed.
Hopefully there’s not just a single vote in any of them.
9 October 2023